Sad news: David Perlman John McCarthy, computer science trailblazer, dies Sf Gate (Oct. 29, 2011).
McCarthy was, among many things, a serious student of "common sense."
But note: Much or most expert epidemiological evidence presented in trials does not even purport to be a causal account; much of this sort of evidence is portrayed by those who present it in trials as “purely statistical.” The same can be said of other types of (statistical) expert and scientific evidence presented in trials.
-- Lotfi A. Zadeh Professor in the Graduate School Director, Berkeley Initiative in Soft Computing (BISC) Address: 729 Soda Hall #1776 Computer Science Division Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences University of California Berkeley, CA 94720-1776 firstname.lastname@example.org Tel.(office): (510) 642-4959 Fax (office): (510) 642-1712 Tel.(home): (510) 526-2569 Fax (home): (510) 526-2433 URL: http://www.cs.berkeley.edu/~
zadeh/ BISC Homepage URLs
Going back to [Andrew] Gelman’s analysis of the standard view, he points out that one very negative consequence of subscribing to the bayesian bundle, is that it encourages bayesians to cultivate the bad habit of disregarding model checking. This, according to Gelman, depends crucially on the subjective view of probability which Bayesians embrace. One is easily reminded here of the classic line by F.J. Anscombe: “To anyone sympathetic with the current neo-Bernoullian neo-Bayesian Ramseyesque Finettist Savageous movement in statistics, the subject of testing goodness of ﬁt is something of an embarrassment”, F.J. Anscombe (1963, “Tests of Goodness of Fit”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B Vol. 25, No. 1, pp. 81-94).
The Reasoner (www.thereasoner.org) is a monthly digest highlighting exciting new research on reasoning, inference and method broadly construed. It is interdisciplinary, covering research in, e.g., philosophy, logic, AI, statistics, cognitive science, law, psychology, mathematics and the sciences.
But some or many events associated with specific places happen in other places. Tricky complications.