Tuesday, December 02, 2014

Profiling and the hopeless yearning for "specific evidence"


If the DOJ's promised new anti-profiling guidelines rely to any significant extent on the notion of "specific evidence," the new guidelines will be a hopeless mishmash. Cf. Peter Tillers, If Wishes Were Horses: Discursive Comments on Attempts to Prevent Individuals from Being Unfairly Burdened by their Reference Classes, 4 Law, Probability and Risk 33 (Oxford University Press, 2005).


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Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Is fuzzy logic passé?


Lotfi A. Zadeh

to BISC-Group
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Berkeley Initiative in Soft Computing (BISC)
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Dear members of the BISC Group:

    For your information, following is an updated version of a brief report on the impact of fuzzy logic. Comments are welcome.

     Regards,

     Lotfi

Factual Information about the Impact of Fuzzy Logic
L.A. ZADEH

COUNT of PUBLICATIONS

•    Total number of papers with “fuzzy” in title (Google Scholar): 360,000

•    Count of publications containing the word “fuzzy” in title, as cited in INSPEC and MATH.SCI.NET databases.
Compiled on September 11, 2014.

INSPEC Database

1970-1979:   569
1980-1989:   2,375
1990-1999:   21,572
2000-2009: 44,695
2010-present: 31,826
Total:   101,037

MathSciNet Database

1970-1979:   446
1980-1989:   2,474
1990-1999:   5,526
2000-2009: 10,295
2010-present: 7,131
Total:   25,872


Count of citations
•    Number of citations/results of papers by L. Zadeh (Google Scholar): 138,270
•    Number of citations of L. Zadeh’s paper “Fuzzy sets,” Information and Control, 1965 (Google Scholar): 52,484
•    Number of members of the BISC Group (subscribers on BISC mailing list)
worldwide: 990

PATENTS

•    Number of fuzzy-logic-related patents issued: 560,000


JOURNALS

Fuzzy in title
1.    Fuzzy Sets and Systems
2.    IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems
3.    International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
4.    Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making
5.    Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems
6.    Fuzzy Economic Review
7.    International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems
8.    Journal of Japan Society for Fuzzy Theory and Systems
9.    International Journal of Fuzzy Systems
10.    International Review of Fuzzy Mathematics
11.    Fuzzy Systems and Soft Computing
12.    Turkish Journal of Fuzzy Systems
13.    Annals of Fuzzy Sets, Fuzzy Logic and Fuzzy Systems
14.    Iranian Journal of Fuzzy Systems
15.    Fuzzy Information and Engineering
16.    Advances in Fuzzy Systems
17.    International Journal of Fuzzy System Applications
18.    Advances in Fuzzy Sets and Systems
19.    International Journal of Fuzzy Systems and Rough Systems
20.    International Journal of Fuzzy Logic Systems
21.    Journal of Biomedical Fuzzy Systems Association
22.    Advances in Fuzzy Mathematics
23.    Journal of Fuzzy Mathematics
24.    Journal of Advanced Research in Fuzzy and Uncertain
25.    Fuzzy Systems & AI—Reports & Letters
26.    Neural and Fuzzy Modeling Technology in Economics
27.    International Journal of Fuzzy Systems and Advanced Applications
28.    International Journal of Fuzzy Computation and Modelling
29.    International Journal of Fuzzy Information and Engineering

Soft Computing in title (soft computing=fuzzy logic, neurocomputing and evolutionary computing)
1.    Soft Computing
2.    Applied Soft Computing
3.    Mathware & Soft Computing
4.    Journal of Multiple-Valued Logic and Soft Computing
5.    Applied Computational Intelligence and Soft Computing
6.    Autosoft Journal. Intelligent Automation & Soft Computing
7.    International Journal of Advances in Soft Computing and Its Applications
8.    International Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing
9.    International Journal of Soft Computing Applications
10.    International Journal on Soft Computing
11.    International Journal of Soft Computing
12.    International Journal of Mathematics and Soft Computing
13.    International Journal of Soft Computing Simulation and Software Engineering
14.    International Journal of Soft Computing and Bioinformatics
15.    Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing Research
16.    International Journal of Soft Computing and Engineering
17.    Fuzzy Systems and Soft Computing
18.    International Journal of Research and Reviews in Soft and Intelligent Computing
19.    International Journal of Factory Automation, Robotics and Soft Computing
20.    International Journal of Biomedical Soft Computing and Human Sciences
21.    Archives for the Philosophy and History of Soft Computing

Impact on pure mathematics
•    Total number of papers with “fuzzy topology” or “fuzzy topological spaces” in title (Google Scholar): 1417
•    Total number of books with "fuzzy topology" or "fuzzy topological spaces" in title (Google Books): 148


--
Lotfi A. Zadeh
Professor Emeritus
Director, Berkeley Initiative in Soft Computing (BISC)
Address:
729 Soda Hall #1776
Computer Science Division
Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences
University of California
Berkeley, CA 94720-1776
zadeh@eecs.berkeley.edu
Tel.(home): (510) 526-2569
URL: http://www.cs.berkeley.edu/~zadeh/


Friday, September 19, 2014

Wigmore Lifetime Achievement Award

Peter Tillers will be the recipient of the Wigmore Lifetime Achievement Award at this year’s (Jan. 2015) AALS meeting; the presentation will be made during our section’s joint luncheon with the Criminal Justice section. Thanks to all of you who nominated candidates, and thanks to the officers and executive committee members of the evidence section for discussing the nominations and voting. 

David S. Caudill (Chair, AALS Section on Evidence)
Professor and Goldberg Family Chair in Law
Villanova University School of Law


Thursday, September 18, 2014

Precise reasoning about reasoning with fuzzy words

Comment by Tillers: legal scholars might avoid uttering a great deal of nonsense about imprecise legal concepts if they took the trouble to study fuzzy logic.

Lotfi A. Zadeh:

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Berkeley Initiative in Soft Computing (BISC)
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Dear members of the BISC Group: 

    The concept of FL-generalization was introduced in my 2008 paper "Is there a need for fuzzy logic?" Information Sciences. The basic importance of FL-generalization has not been fully recognized as yet. For those who are not familiar with FL-generalization, a brief explanation is provided in the following.  

    In large measure, science -- including mathematics -- is based on the classical, Aristotelian, bivalent logic. Bivalent-logic-based science has achieved brilliant successes. But what is striking is that bivalent-logic-based science ignores a basic reality. In human cognition, almost all classes have unsharp (fuzzy) boundaries. Bivalent logic is not the right logic for dealing with such classes, nor is bivalent-logic-based probability theory. What is needed for this purpose is fuzzy set theory and, more broadly, fuzzy logic, FL. Informally, fuzzy logic is a system of reasoning and computation in which the objects of reasoning and computation are classes with unsharp (fuzzy) boundaries.  

    The point of departure in fuzzy set theory is a generalization of the concept of a set to the concept of a fuzzy set. A fuzzy set, A, in a space, U, is a graduated class of elements of U. Graduation involves association of each element, u, of U with its grade of membership in A. This very simple generalization has wide-ranging ramifications. 

    Let T be a bivalent-logic-based theory, formalism, algorithm, concept, etc. T is FL-generalized by adding to T the concept of a fuzzy set along with associated concepts and techniques. The result of FL-generalization is fuzzy T.Examples. Fuzzy arithmetic, fuzzy linear programming, fuzzy control, fuzzy stability, fuzzy support vector machine, fuzzy group theory, fuzzy topology, fuzzy convex set, fuzzy back-propagation algorithm, fuzzy probability, etc. T may be viewed as a special case of fuzzy T. FL-generalization is a matter of degree, reflecting the extent to which sets in T are replaced by fuzzy sets. In the limit, FL-generalization of T involves a shift in the foundations of T from bivalent logic to fuzzy logic. 

    What is gained by FL-generalization? There are two principal rationales. First, FL-generalization opens the door to construction of better models of reality. There is a fundamental conflict between two realities. In the world of human cognition, almost all concepts are classes with unsharp (fuzzy) boundaries, that is, are a matter of degree. In the world of science, almost all definitions are bivalent, with no degrees allowed. Here are a few examples. In economics, the official definition of recession is bivalent. Specifically, economy is in a state of recession if the GDP declined in two successive quarters. Realistically, recession is not a bivalent concept -- it is a matter of degree. In probability theory, stationarity is defined as a bivalent concept. Realistically, stationarity is a matter of degree. In stability theory, stability is defined as a bivalent concept. Realistically, stability is a matter of degree, and so on, and on and on. FL-generalization of definitions, serves an important purpose--replacement of bivalent definitions with fuzzy-logic-based definitions which are better models of reality. 

    The second rationale has a position of centrality in applications of fuzzy logic. Specifically, the second rationale involves an exploitation of tolerance for imprecision through replacement of numbers with precisiated words. A word is precisiated by representing it as a label of a fuzzy set which has a specified membership function. A striking example of exploitation of a tolerance for imprecision is the problem of stabilization of an inverted pendulum. The traditional approach starts with formulation of differential equations of motion, followed by application of stability theory. In the fuzzy-logic-based approach, a small number of very simple fuzzy if-then rules, with precisiated words in the antecedents and consequents, are employed to describe the dynamics of the inverted pendulum. This is the essence of what is called the Fuzzy Logic Gambit. Fuzzy Logic Gambit is an essential ingredient of the formalism of Computing with Words (CWW). Basically, CWW may be viewed as a progression from the use of numbers to the use of precisiated words. 
     In summary, FL-generalization may be viewed as an important instrument of generalization in which the point of departure is replacement of the concept of a set with the concept of a fuzzy set. In large measure, scientific progress is driven by a quest for better models of reality. What I see in my crystal ball is the following. In coming years, more and more theories, formalisms, algorithms and concepts will be FL-generalized. This is likely to be the case even in mathematics--a discipline in which the word "fuzzy" strikes a dissonant note. What should be recognized is that shifting foundations of a theory from bivalent logic to fuzzy logic need not involve a loss of rigor and precision. Example. Fuzzy topology is every bit as rigorous and precise as classical topology. Comments are welcome.

                 Regards,

                 Lotfi
--
Lotfi A. Zadeh
Professor Emeritus
Director, Berkeley Initiative in Soft Computing (BISC)
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Wednesday, September 10, 2014

The Trouble With Harvard


Steven Pinker The Trouble With Harvard New Republic (September 4, 2014)


Extract:

Deresiewicz writes engagingly about the wacky ways of elite university admissions, and he deserves credit for opening a debate on policies which have been shrouded in Victorian daintiness and bureaucratic obfuscation. Unfortunately, his article is a poor foundation for diagnosing and treating the illness. Long on dogmatic assertion and short on objective analysis, the article is driven by a literarism which exalts bohemian authenticity over worldly success and analytical brainpower. And his grapeshot inflicts a lot of collateral damage while sparing the biggest pachyderms in the parlor. 



But the biggest problem is that the advice in Deresiewicz’s title is perversely wrongheaded. If your kid has survived the application ordeal and has been offered a place at an elite university, don’t punish her for the irrationalities of a system she did nothing to create; by all means send her there! The economist Caroline Hoxby has shown that selective universities spendtwenty times more on student instruction, support, and facilities than less selective ones, while their students pay for a much smaller fraction of it, thanks to gifts to the college. Because of these advantages, it’s the selective institutions that are the real bargains in the university marketplace. Holding qualifications constant, graduates of a selective university are more likely to graduate on time, will tend to find a more desirable spouse, and will earn 20 percent more than those of less selective universitiesevery year for the rest of their working lives. These advantages swamp any differences in tuition and other expenses, which in any case are often lower than those of less selective schools because of more generous need-based financial aid. The Ivy admissions sweepstakes may be irrational, but the parents and teenagers who clamber to win it are not.



Likei many observers of American universities, I used to believe the following story. Once upon a time Harvard was a finishing school for the plutocracy, where preppies and Kennedy scions earned gentleman’s Cs while playing football, singing in choral groups, and male-bonding at final clubs, while the blackballed Jews at CCNY founded left-wing magazines and slogged away in labs that prepared them for their Nobel prizes in science. Then came Sputnik, the '60s, and the decline of genteel racism and anti-Semitism, and Harvard had to retool itself as a meritocracy, whose best-and-brightest gifts to America would include recombinant DNA, Wall Street quants, The Simpsons, Facebook, and the masthead of The New Republic.
This story has a grain of truth in it: Hoxby has documented that the academic standards for admission to elite universities have risen over the decades. But entrenched cultures die hard, and the ghost of Oliver Barrett IV still haunts every segment of the Harvard pipeline. 
At the admissions end, it’s common knowledge that Harvard selects at most10 percent (some say 5 percent) of its students on the basis of academic merit. At an orientation session for new faculty, we were told that Harvard “wants to train the future leaders of the world, not the future academics of the world,” and that “We want to read about our student in Newsweek 20 years hence” (prompting the woman next to me to mutter, “Like the Unabomer”). The rest are selected “holistically,” based also on participation in athletics, the arts, charity, activism, travel, and, we inferred (Not in front of the children!), race, donations, and legacy status (since anything can be hidden behind the holistic fig leaf).
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Criminal Corporate Character


Criminal Corporate Character


Robert E. Wagner 


City University of New York (CUNY) Baruch College Zicklin School of Business Department of Law

August 15, 2014

65 Florida Law Review 1293 (2013) 

Abstract:   

In the last few years, corporations have been accused of crimes ranging from environmental pollution on an unprecedented scale, to manslaughter, to election tampering, to large-scale antitrust violations. Many of these accused companies had previously committed similar acts or even the exact same offense. Unfortunately, the rules of evidence in the federal system and in virtually every state system prohibit the use of this information in a prosecution for such crimes. The reasons for this prohibition are based in historical anomalies, a mistaken understanding of corporate function, and a misplaced anthropomorphism of the corporation. This combination of errors has resulted in the questionable practice of excluding relevant evidence in cases where the justifications for exclusion are either nonexistent or weak and the benefits of admitting the evidence clearly prevail. This Article demonstrates the fallacies of this continued practice and argues in favor of change. Specifically, this Article shows why evidence concerning the character of a corporation should be allowed in criminal settings to prove that the corporation acted in conformity with that character on the date in question. Courts so far have not given much consideration to the question and have simply assumed that the character evidence rules apply to corporations. I base my objections to this practice on the goals of corporate criminal liability, the inherent weaknesses of the character evidence rules generally, and the way in which corporate structure exacerbates those weaknesses. Lawyers should argue that the character evidence rules do not apply to corporations, judges should decide accordingly, and legislatures should amend both the Federal Rules of Evidence and their state counterparts to make it unambiguously clear that corporations are not covered by the same principles regarding character as individuals.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 37
Keywords: corporations, evidence, white collar crime, character, corporate crime
JEL Classification: K22, K14
Accepted Paper Series 


Download This Paper

Date posted: August 15, 2014  

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Wednesday, September 03, 2014

New Jersey's eyewitness identification jury instructions

"The New Jersey instructiondid not improve juror's ability to discern quality; rather, jurors indiscriminatingly discounted “weak” and “strong” testimony in equal measure. "


"The Novel New Jersey Eyewitness Instruction Induces Skepticism But Not Sensitivity"
Arizona Legal Studies Discussion Paper No. 14-17


ATHAN P. PAPAILIOU, University of Arizona
DAVID V. YOKUM, University of Arizona - James E. Rogers College of Law, University of Arizona - College of Science
Email: dyokum@email.arizona.edu

CHRISTOPHER T. ROBERTSON, University of Arizona - James E. Rogers College of Law, Harvard University - Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics, Harvard University - Petrie-Flom Center for Health Law Policy, Biotechnology, and Bioethics
Email: chris.robertson@law.arizona.edu


In recent decades, social scientists have shown that the reliability of eyewitness identifications is much worse than laypersons tend to believe. The courts have only recently begun to react to this evidence, and New Jersey has, in particular, reformed its instructions to jurors, notifying them about the frailties of human memory, the potential for lineup administrators to nudge witnesses towards suspects that they police have already identified, and the advantages of certain lineup procedures including blinding of the administrator.

Our experiment tested the efficacy of New Jersey’s real-world intervention. In a 2×2 between-subjects design, mock jurors (N = 335) watched a 35-minute murder trial, wherein identification quality was either “weak” or “strong” and either the New Jersey or a “standard” jury instruction was delivered. Jurors were less than half as likely to convict when the New Jersey instruction was used (OR = 2.55; 95% CI = 1.37 – 4.89, p < .001). The New Jersey instruction, however, did not improve juror's ability to discern quality; rather, jurors indiscriminatingly discounted “weak” and “strong” testimony in equal measure. Trial judges should consider only giving the instruction for weak eyewitness evidence, to thereby increase the diagnosticity of trials.


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Tuesday, August 05, 2014

Kevin Clermont on the "conjunction paradox"


The so-called conjunction paradox has bedeviled modern theorizing about burdens of proof ever since L Jonathan Cohen introduced the paradox some decades ago. Kevin Clermont makes a powerful argument that multivalent logic rather than bivalent logic describes the task that factfinders encounter when they engage in fact-finding in legal proceedings and that, if that's the case, the conjunction paradox disappears. See Kevin Clermont Conjunction of Evidence and Multivalent Logic (July 24, 2014).


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Wednesday, July 30, 2014

The Central Park Jogger Case: A Dissenting View


MICHAEL F. ARMSTRONG, WSJ Persistent Myths in the Central Park Jogger Case (July 29, 2014)

Extract:

"The defendants were convicted in 1990 for participating, with 30 or 35 other 14- to 16-year-olds, in a series of attacks in Central Park on the evening of April 19, 1989. The convictions were based largely on the defendants' own statements to the police. By far the most serious of the assaults was the horrific, bloody rape and near-murder of a 29-year-old female jogger, who survived, but without any memory of what had happened. The defendants served prison sentences from six to 13 years.

"Their convictions were vacated in 2002 when Matias Reyes, an imprisoned serial rapist and killer, volunteered that he had raped the jogger, a claim confirmed by DNA tests, and that he had done it alone, a claim resting solely on his credibility.

"In the lawsuit against the city that followed, police and prosecutors honored a court request not to discuss the case publicly. The defendants—now civil plaintiffs—launched a high-powered publicity campaign that has persuaded many that they were completely innocent, that they had been coerced and fed false stories by the police, and that they have been exonerated. None of these contentions is accurate."



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Sunday, July 27, 2014

"Don't Send Your Kid to the Ivy League"

This is a very interesting essay (but – perhaps this is a minor point – I have grave reservations about William Deresiewicz's suggestion to weight SAT scores to help offset the disadvantages that applicants from lower socioeconomic backgrounds suffer from).

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Sunday, July 13, 2014

On the recording of confessions


See Jennifer Mnookin's Op-Ed  on the recording of confessions.



Extract:

Supporters of the practice present recordings as a solution for a host of problems, from police misconduct to false confessions. But while there are lots of good reasons to require them, they are hardly a panacea; in fact, the very same qualities that make them useful — their seeming vividness and objectivity — also risk making them misleading, and possibly even an inadvertent tool for injustice.
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Thursday, July 03, 2014

Period. Full Stop?

Jennifer Schuessler, If Only Thomas Jefferson Could Settle the Issue NYTimes (July 2, 2014)

Extract:

Every Fourth of July, some Americans sit down to read the Declaration of Independence, reacquainting themselves with the nation’s founding charter exactly as it was signed by the Second Continental Congress in 1776.

Or almost exactly? A scholar is now saying that the official transcript of the document produced by the National Archives and Records Administration contains a significant error — smack in the middle of the sentence beginning “We hold these truths to be self-evident,” no less.

The error, according to Danielle Allen, a professor at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, N.J., concerns a period that appears right after the phrase “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness” in the transcript, but almost certainly not, she maintains, on the badly faded parchment original.

That errant spot of ink, she believes, makes a difference, contributing to what she calls a “routine but serious misunderstanding” of the document.

The period creates the impression that the list of self-evident truths ends with the right to “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness,” she says. ...


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Tillers: It has often been said that in the 18th century and before English-speaking peoples were remarkably lackadaisical about punctuation. If this is true, whether or not the period was there in the original Declaration of Independence was less significant than it would be to a 21st Century mind – and 18th-century "sloppiness" about punctuation suggests that "close textual analysis" to ascertain the meaning or intent of 18th-century documents will go badly wrong if the text being studied is studied in isolation. Are you listening, original intent theorists?
 
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Friday, May 23, 2014

Larry Laudan on seriatim versus v. contemporaneous eyewitness identifications



Abstract:      
Recent research has revealed that sequential lineup eyewitness identifications are less likely to falsely identify an innocent suspect as the culprit than are traditional simultaneous lineups. This has led numerous reformers to advocate (and many jurisdictions to accept) that the latter procedure should be replaced by the former. Clark has rightly pointed out that mis-identification data has another twist that almost everyone else has ignored; to wit, sequential lineups are much more likely to lead to false negatives than are simultaneous lineups. 

If, as we have every reason to believe, both types of lineups are more likely to include a guilty party than to include only innocent suspects, there are powerful reasons to say, as Clark does, that sequential lineups are apt to have higher aggregate error rates than simultaneous lineups do. That should give pause to the growing movement to replace the latter by the former.

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Thursday, May 22, 2014

How is fuzzy logic doing? Is it passé?

Professor Lotfi Zadeh sent the following message today to his discussion list (BISC):
How is fuzzy logic doing? A significant measure is the number of publications with "fuzzy" in title (annually). My administrative assistant, Ixel Chavez, has compiled the information which follows. Comments are welcome.

    Regards,

    Lotfi






 Annual number of publications with "fuzzy" in title (
Google Scholar)1993: 5,030
1994: 5,700
1995: 6,340
1996: 6,620
1997: 6,810
1998: 7,130
1999: 7,650
2000: 7,620
2001: 8,260
2002: 8,650
2003: 9,240
2004: 10,900
2005: 12,300
2006: 13,900
2007: 14,800
2008: 16,000
2009: 17,900
2010: 18,700
2011: 18,900
2012: 18,700
2013: 17,000

Total: 238,150 (20 year total)



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Monday, April 28, 2014