A numbers game: 3, 2,...?

On the doctrine of chances again:

Three prior "accidental" drownings are enough to show or suggest that the latest drowning was no accident.

Two prior drownings are also enough to show or suggest that the latest drowning was no accident.

So one prior drowning is also sometimes enough? (If not, why not?)

And, of course, no prior bathtub drownings are necessary and evidence of the putatively accidental but possibly murderous drowning for which accused is on trial is admissible to show that the drowning was no accident.

In short: if it's all about the numbers, there is a sense in which the numbers don't really matter. In any case, what does the number of prior drownings -- one, two, or more -- have to do with the question of whether an inference from propensity is necessary? The answer, I think, is nothing -- unless, that is, you think -- incorrectly -- that the character evidence rule is rooted in nothing except judgments (or beliefs) about the probative value of evidence about human behavior.

the dynamic evidence page

coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

consulting

Is the Doctrine of Chances Good Law -- Really?

It is often said that the "doctrine of chances" -- think Brides in the Bath -- is good law, if only implicitly so. But my research reveals or suggests that during roughly the last 18 years only a small handful of federal courts -- perhaps only two -- have expressly endorsed the doctrine of chances. In view of this can it reasonably be argued that the doctrine of chances is good law in the federal system? I wonder. I seriously wonder.

the dynamic evidence page

consulting

coming: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

Exculpatory Polygraph Result Admitted in State Criminal Trial

Debra Cassens Weiss, "Law Grad Acquitted, Relies on Polygraph," ABA Journal online (Sept. 5, 2007):

Judge Judy Hunter of Akron, Ohio, acquitted Sharma in a bench trial. She allowed Sharma to introduce the polygraph exam, the first time such evidence was used in an Ohio criminal trial in 30 years, according to a press release issued for the examiner, Louis Rovner.

Prosecutors had appealed Hunter’s decision to admit the test, but an Ohio appeals court said the issue was not ripe for review.

the dynamic evidence page

consulting

coming: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

Lay Judges in Japan -- Expected Rate of Participation

Japan Times Online (Dec. 1, 2008):

Under the lay judge system to be introduced in May, roughly half the people nationwide registered on the list of candidates will likely be summoned by district courts for interviews as possible candidates, according to an estimate released Sunday.

&&&

The Supreme Court sent letters Friday to 295,027 people to notify them that they have been selected as initial candidates for lay judges and may take part in trials for serious crimes in the next year.

the dynamic evidence page

consulting

The Law of Evidence on Spindle Law Is Coming Ever Closer

The law of evidence on Spindle Law is coming. Indeed, it's coming closer than ever.

Stay tuned for details -- details about the forthcoming "Evidence Module."

I will want you to contribute. And I may have something to show you in January or so--something to which you might want to contribute (or so I hope).

the dynamic evidence page

consulting