Tuesday, December 06, 2011

Physics, Soup & Legal Reasoning

Anyone with the slightest appreciation of the character of enormous events such as black holes (which might be said to be enormous non-events), see
NYTimes article on the biggest and baddest black hole yet 
and
Wikipedia article on black holes
and 
Hubblesite on black holes (highly recommended)
understandably hesitates to say anything that might reek to the slightest degree of absurd deconstructionist talk -- such as talk about "decentering gravity" (see the Sokal hoax). With this in mind, I pose several comments and questions seriatim (comments and questions I first posed on Google+):

First: A participant in the BISC list (Berkeley Initiative for Soft Computing list) asked an interesting question: Is human knowledge of causality fuzzy or is causality itself (also) fuzzy?

Second: Is it possible or desirable to combine the precision of, say, special relativity (ignore quantum mechanics, please) with fuzzy logic and probability?

Third: It is fair or accurate to say, yes?, that some or many or all models generated by "real physics" -- models such as Newtonian mechanics and special relativity -- make sense only as universal models (at least in our universe, i.e., putting aside a possible multiverse and the like)? If so, is it logically coherent to imagine (only to imagine, I say!) that such models are mechanisms, processes, or structures that exist in an ocean, or soup, of fuzziness? Or is such an image (an image of quantitatively-specifiable islands in a murky and elusive soup) too close -- fatally too close -- to the excesses and absurdities of deconstructionism, postmodernism, and all that (see the Sokal hoax and ridiculous talk about matters such as "decentering gravity")? Does "real physics" allow for the existence of soup, soup with an ontological status, i.e., "real (fuzzy?) soup"?

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[I repeat, here:] Even if I am just speculating, should I be embarrassed to be speculating in this fashion? (N.B. I repudiated Hegelianism, neo-Hegelianism, and all that, decades ago!)

My probable motivation for the speculation found here: I am groping for a way to explain and defend sloppy, soupy (and non-numerical) reasoning (which is prevalent in legal discourse and argument).

Friday, December 02, 2011

New Book on Evidence (and Related Matters)


The following book has finally been officially published: William Twining, Philip Dawid & Dimitra Vasilaki, eds., Evidence, Inference and Enquiry (Oxford & British Academy, 2011).


I have an essay in the book: "Are There Universal Principles or Forms of Evidential Inference? Of Inference Networks and Onto-Epistemology." For an earlier (and free) version of the essay, go here.





The book's table of contents:


Sir Geoffrey Allen: Foreword
1: Philip Dawid: Introduction
2: David Schum: Classifying Forms and Combinations of Evidence: Necessary in a Science of Evidence
3: Jason Davies: Disciplining the Disciplines
4: William Twining: Moving Beyond Law: Interdisciplinarity and the Study of Evidence
5: Philip Dawid; Amanda Hepler; David Schum: Inference Networks: Bayes and Wigmore
6: John Fox: Arguing about the Evidence: A Logical Approach
7: David Lagnado: Thinking about Evidence
8: Jill Russell and Trisha Greenhalgh: Rhetoric and Argumentation in Evidence-Based Policy Making
9: Terence Anderson: Generalisations and Evidential Reasoning
10: Peter Tillers: Of Inference Networks and Onto-Epistemology
11: Nancy Cartwright and Jacob Stegenga: A Theory of Evidence for Evidence-Based Policy
12: Hasok Chang and Grant Fisher: What the Ravens Really Teach Us: The Intrinsic Contextuality of Evidence
13: Alison Wylie: Critical Distance: Stabilizing Evidential Claims in Archaeology
14: David Colquhoun: In Praise of Randomisation
15: Jason Davies: Believing the Evidence
16: Mike Joffe: What Would a Scientific Economics Look Like?
17: Tony Gardner-Medwin: Reasonable Doubt: Uncertainty in Education, Science and Law



Spindle Law Interview: Bill Neukom



See this interview of Bill Neukom

 

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The dynamic evidence page
Evidence marshaling software MarshalPlan
It's here: the law of evidence on Spindle Law. See also this post and this post.