Friday, October 04, 2013

MarshalPlan 6.x (evidence marshaling software)

A. Background
Years ago David A. Schum and I developed the notion of an evidence marshaling system. We laid out the underlying theory of this evidence marshaling system in A Theory of Preliminary Fact Investigation. We developed a kind of computer embodiment, or computer-based expression, of our idea of an evidence marshaling system. Eventually we decided to call our system "MarshalPlan."

  • Some of my more recent thoughts about the theoretical foundations of MarshalPlan may be found here (long blog post called "The Ramshackle -- and Logical -- Character of Explicit Human Factual Inference" (June 18, 2011)).
  • In the years following my seven(!)-year NSF-supported collaboration with David Schum, I continued to tinker with MarshalPlan. I did so by both modifying and adding "stacks," or files. (Each stack corresponds to an evidence marshaling strategy, or method.) The most recent iteration of the evidence marshaling software is MarshalPlan 6.x.
    A few years ago I began to make MarshalPlan available via the internet. Further below in this post I lay out a relatively simple way that many of you can now use to download and run MarshalPlan 6.x.



    B. Caveats

    Before you download or access MarshalPlan, please consider the following important caveats:
    1. The current iteration of MarshalPlan -- MarshalPlan 6.x -- is not a prototype of a working application suitable for real-time and real-world use. Far from it! However, MarshalPlan 6.x goes beyond just scratchings (text) that explain how an evidence marshaling application might work. Even so, it is not far from the truth to say that MarshalPlan is mainly an elaborate visual illustration of some of the directions that development of software for marshaling evidence in legal settings should take. But, but ... MarshalPlan 6.x is a bit more than an illustration of possible future directions for research and development. MarshalPlan as it now stands is useful for pedagogical (i.e., teaching) purposes. Moreover, MarshalPlan is creeping ever closer to being something akin to a genuine software prototype suitable for real-world and real-time use. 
    2. In MarshalPlan there are only brief explanations of some of the evidence marshaling strategies found there. Other marshaling strategies, however, are described and explained more fully. For a comprehensive account of the thinking that went into MarshalPlan, please see the readings mentioned above. If you want a truly comprehensive theory-laden explanation of MarshalPlan, you will have to invite me to give a leisurely talk (preferably on a tropical island or some other attractive venue).
    3. A few buttons and links may not work. If that happens, try other buttons and links. (Otherwise resort to expletives. You have my permission.) 
    4. MarshalPlan 6.x is currently not set up to be linked to a database. This is an almost fatal deficiency for any possible real-world use in a context such as law practice. (But it would not be difficult for a reasonably proficient programmer to eliminate this deficiency.)

    C. Instructions

    Try the following method to view and play with MarshalPlan 6.x:
    Go to http://tillers.net/MarshalPlan 6.x and open the subfolder "Windows" and then click on MarshalPlan 6.x.exe. 
    A free open source version of the scripting language for MarshalPlan is now available (go here). It is called "LiveCode Community."

    • Caveat: I reserve my copyright to MarshalPlan. This means in part that you cannot distribute, lease, or use any version of MarshalPlan for profit or for commercial purposes without my express written permission.
    Nota Bene: You will very probably not be able to run MarshalPlan 6.x on an Apple computer. The Apple OS probably still strips MarshalPlan of the ability to run on Apple computers. Sorry! {Take your grievance if any to the paternalistic Apple Corporation, which likes closed worlds, particularly those that it controls.} But there is a solution! Send an email message to peter@tillers.net and ask me to share a relevant DropBox folder with you. I will probably happily oblige.
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    The dynamic evidence page




    Thursday, September 26, 2013

    Chapel Hill and James H. Chadbourn


    A friend recently reminded me of Tom Wolfe's connection with Chapel Hill, North Carolina. My friend's reminder made me think of James H. Chadbourn, who began his academic career at the University of North Carolina. Chadbourn published a book on lynching and the law in 1933. He was 33 years old at the time and a lowly assistant professor. I imagine it took much courage to publish that book. 

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    The dynamic evidence page

    Evidence marshaling software MarshalPlan


    Monday, September 23, 2013

    A Lesson for the Confrontation Clause?

    Jennifer Kingson, Rethinking the Poker Face and Plans for a Cat in Space NY Times  (Sept. 23, 2013):

    Poker Arms

    In a classic work by Lady Gaga, she boasts, “No, he can’t read my poker face.” But according to a paper in the journal Psychological Science, she should be more worried about her arm and hand movements, at least when playing poker. “Even though professional players may be able to regulate their facial expressions, their motor actions could betray the quality of their poker hand,” the authors wrote. In three studies, psychologists asked undergraduates to watch clips of professional poker players placing bets; it turned out that smooth and confident arm motions while pushing the chips were the surest signal of a good hand.


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    Evidence marshaling software MarshalPlan


    Tuesday, September 17, 2013

    FISA Court's Mechanical Fourth Amendment Jurisprudence


    For a stellar (and shocking) example of mechanical Fourth Amendment jurisprudence, see this recently declassified FISA court memorandum opinion.
    Apart from the opinion's singularly uninspired black-letter interpretation of the Fourth Amendment (and heavy reliance on 1970s Supreme Court precedents), the opinion is striking for the paucity of discussion - less than five double-spaced pages - devoted to the question of the constitutionality of a massive program of NSA surveillance of telephony metadata.
    God help us all!
    &&&
    The dynamic evidence page

    Evidence marshaling software MarshalPlan


    Mixtures of DNA in One Person


    Carol Zimmer, DNA Double Take NYTimes (Sept. 12, 2013)

    Snippets:

    ... [S]cientists are discovering that — to a surprising degree — we contain genetic multitudes. Not long ago, researchers had thought it was rare for the cells in a single healthy person to differ genetically in a significant way. But scientists are finding that it’s quite common for an individual to have multiple genomes. Some people, for example, have groups of cells with mutations that are not found in the rest of the body. Some have genomes that came from other people.

    [snip, snip]

    Dr. James R. Lupski, a leading expert on the human genome at Baylor College of Medicine, wrote in a recent review in the journal Science that the existence of multiple genomes in an individual could have a tremendous impact on the practice of medicine. ...

    [snip, snip]

    Science’s changing view is also raising questions about how forensic scientists should use DNA evidence to identify people. ...

    [snip, snip]

    ... In 1953, for example, a British woman donated a pint of blood. It turned out that some of her blood was Type O and some was Type A. The scientists who studied her concluded thatshe had acquired some of her blood from her twin brother in the womb, including his genomes in his blood cells.

    Chimerism, as such conditions came to be known, seemed for many years to be a rarity. But “it can be commoner than we realized,” said Dr. Linda Randolph, a pediatrician at Children’s Hospital in Los Angeles who is an author of a review of chimerism published in The American Journal of Medical Genetics in July.

    [snip, snip]

    A century ago, geneticists discovered one way in which people might acquire new genomes. They were studying “mosaic animals,” rare creatures with oddly-colored patches of fur. The animals didn’t inherit the genes for these patches from their parents. Instead, while embryos, they acquired a mutation in a skin cell that divided to produce a colored patch.

    Mosaicism, as this condition came to be known, was difficult to study in humans before the age of DNA sequencing. Scientists could only discover instances in which the mutations and the effects were big.

    [snip, snip]

    The latest findings make it clear that mosaicism is quite common — even in healthy cells.

    [snip, snip

    Medical researchers aren’t the only scientists interested in our multitudes of personal genomes. So are forensic scientists. When they attempt to identify criminals or murder victims by matching DNA, they want to avoid being misled by the variety of genomes inside a single person.

    Last year, for example, forensic scientists at the Washington State Patrol Crime Laboratory Division described how a saliva sample and a sperm sample from the same suspect in a sexual assault case didn’t match.

    [snip, snip]

    While the risk of confusion is real, it is manageable, experts said. “This should not be much of a concern for forensics,” said Manfred Kayser, a professor of Forensic Molecular Biology at Erasmus University in Rotterdam. In the cases where mosaicism or chimerism causes confusion, forensic scientists can clear it up by other means. In the Austrian study, for example, the scientists found no marrow donor genomes in the hair of the recipients.

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    The dynamic evidence page

    Evidence marshaling software MarshalPlan


    Friday, September 06, 2013

    A Path to the Solution of the Conjunction Paradox?

    The "conjunction paradox" has bedeviled legal theorists for years. It still does. See, e.g., Kevin M. Clermont, Death of Paradox: The Killer Logic Beneath the Standards of Proof Cornell Law Faculty Publications, Scholarship@Cornell Law: A Digital Repository (Feb 1, 2013). Some legal theorists who doubt that the standard probability calculus is a satisfactory "model" of judicial proof are particularly prone to flog their opponents with this paradox.


    But what is the conjunction paradox? According to Professor Clermont, id. at 1106, Professor Charles Nesson constructed "the best-known statement of the infamous conjunction paradox." Clermont quotes (id.) Nesson thus (original article: Charles Nesson, "The Evidence or the Event? On Judicial Proof and the Acceptability of Verdicts, 98 Harvard Law Review 1357, 1385-88 (1985) footnotes omitted)):


    "We purport to decide civil cases according to a more-probable-than-not standard of proof. We would expect this standard to take into account the rule of conjunction, which states that the probability of two independent events occurring together is the product of the probability of each event occurring separately. The rule of conjunction dictates that in a case comprised of two independent elements the plaintiff must prove each element to a much greater degree than 50%: only then will the plaintiff have shown that the probability that the two elements occurred together exceeds 50%. Suppose, for example, that a plaintiff must prove both causation and fault and that these two elements are independent. If the plaintiff shows that causation is 60% probable and fault is 60% probable, then he apparently would have failed to satisfy the civil standard of proof because the probability that the defendant both acted negligently and caused injury is only 36%.

          "In our legal system, however, jurors do not consider whether it is more probable than not that all elements occurred in conjunction. Judges instruct jurors to decide civil cases element by element, with each element decided on a more-probable-than-not basis. Once jurors have decided that an element is probable, they are to consider the element established, repress any remaining doubts about it, and proceed to consider the next element. If the plaintiff proves each element by a preponderance of the evidence, the jury will find in his favor.... Thus, jurors may find a defendant liable even if it is highly unlikely that he acted negligently, that is, the conjoined probability of the elements is much less than 50%. In such cases, the verdict fails to reflect a probable account of what happened and thus fails to minimize the cost of judicial errors ...
    "...
    "... Although courts direct juries to consider and decide each element seriatim, juries do not consider each item of evidence seriatim when deciding whether a given element is proved. The jury must decide each element by looking at all of the evidence bearing on proof of that element. Thus, although the jury does not assess the conjunction of the elements of a case, it does decide each element by assessing the conjunction of the evidence for it."


    The conjunction paradox persists even if we assume juries are told to assess the probability of a whole claim (or affirmative defense) as well as the probability of each element of the claim (or affirmative defense).


    The conjunction paradox persists even if we assume that there are some partial dependencies among the elements of a claim (or affirmative defense).


    The conjunction paradox takes an acute form in criminal cases - in which, let us assume, jurors are instructed they must find that proof establishes each element of the charge beyond a reasonable doubt and also the entire charge beyond a reasonable doubt. The problem here is that if the charge has two or more essential elements and if a numerical value such as a .95 probability is assigned to "beyond a reasonable doubt," it seems to follow, by probability logic - specifically the product rule, contrary to the instructions jurors are actually given,  that they must find that the probability of at least one of those elements must be very substantially above .95. If not, it seems to follow - by the probability logic - that jurors can return a guilty verdict even if they believe that the probability of the existence of all the essential elements taken together is less than .95.

    I have made some entirely unsatisfactory attempts to develop a solution to the conjunction paradox. See, e.g.,

    Sunday, April 18, 2010

    Cf. my unsuccessful attempt to begin to find another way through the muddle:

    I am now going to try to begin work toward very different kind of solution. Consider the following (fragmentary and tentative!) gambit:



    Take the following possible situation (Situation X):

    At about 3:00 p.m., on June 5, 2013, (a) James Jones becomes angry at Valiant Victim, (b) decides to hurt Valiant Victim, (c) picks up a knife, and (d) stabs Valiant Victim.

    We can think of the Situation X as a set of distinct events a – d .

    We can also think of the above situation Situation X as one event - as a single event - that has a number of parts or features (e.g., the events or features above, a – d ).

    Probability theory alone does not tell us which of these two ways we should or must think of Situation X.


    If we can or should think of Situation X with features a – d (only) as a single (possible) event, we are free to think of the question of the probability of Situation X without believing that we must or should think of the probabilities of each of the events or features a – d.


    • It is quite true that it is possible think of Situation X as a (possible) compound event that is nothing more than the collection of (possibly-connected) distinct events a – d over time.
    • If we think of Situation X in (only) this way, we can and surely must (at the very least) think of the separate probabilties of each of the events a – d if we wish to assess the probability ofSituation X.
    • Given the hypothesized way we are now thinking of Situation X, if we do not ponder these separate probabilities, we cannot possibly assess the probability of Situation X. This is because we think of Situation X as nothing more than the conjunction (over time) of events a – d.
    • But it is also true that it is possible to think of Situation X(only) as a single event with the features a – d over time. In that event, if we wish to assess the probability of Situation X, the structure of our thinking (or imagination) about Situation Xdoes not force or drive us to ponder the separate probability of each a – d. Indeed, if we think of Situation X as nothing more than a single event, we cannot readily imagine the possibilty of separate assessments of the probability of each a – d.


    But a question: In a trial we take (and must take) evidence about matters such as events or elements a – d. Does it follow that we must think of (factual) hypotheses such as Situation X as being nothing more than a possible composite event consisting of events a – d?


    Answer: I don't think so. The evidence in question may generate in our minds the hypothesis Situation X with the features a – d. Cf. P. Tillers & D. Schum, A Theory of Preliminary Fact Investigation, 24 University of California at Davis Law Review 931 (1991) (arguing in part that evidence serves to generate and refine hypotheses as well as to prove or disprove formulated hypotheses). But once a factual hypothesis is crystallized in our minds, we are free (as a logical matter) to think or imagine that the evidence about a – d is nothing more than evidence about the entire hypothesis Situation X.

    But note (and this is an important note, a very important refinement): As I have hinted above - by using words such as “only” and “just” - I think it is both possible and likely that our minds shift between thinking of a factual scenario such as Situation X as being, one the one hand, a single event and, on the other hand, a composite event (i.e., an event consisting of distinct sub-events). If this is the case, it follows that when we shift from one way of thinking about a factual scenario to the other, the way that probability theory is applied to the situation also changes and must change. And that's perfectly fine and appropriate. Probability theory is a formal tool that does not, by itself, specify or even suggest how possible events in the world should or must be carved up.



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    The dynamic evidence page

    Evidence marshaling software MarshalPlan


    Sunday, September 01, 2013

    University and Law School Finances, Faculty Salaries, and Golden Bears

    I was rummaging through my old papers when I found the following churlish memo from a colleague who teaches at a law school somewhere in the U.S.:


    Thursday, October 3, 2002

    To:      Tenured Faculty
    From:  Prof. XXXXXX (Room [...])
    Re:    Salary Increases (Decreases)

    We are now more than more than three months into the fiscal year, and salary increases (decreases) have not yet been announced or implemented. Given these uncertain times, I would like to make several modest proposals:

    1. The current practice of not discussing possible salary increases (decreases) with individual faculty members before individual salary increases (decreases) are determined should continue. Faculty members plainly cannot give disinterested opinions about their own salary increases (decreases).

    2. The policy of not announcing salary increases (decreases) a significant amount of time before they are implemented should continue. Faculty members will be more content with their present salaries - unless, of course, decreases are awarded - if they do not know in advance the salaries they will later receive.

    3. The policy of making decisions about salaries after all other budgetary decisions have been made should continue. It is clear that faculty members can be given only the money that is left over after matters such as heat, electricity, photocopying expenses, building renovations, painting, floor waxing, computers, journal subscriptions, and the like have been taken care of. (If there's no money, there's no money.)
    • Indeed, the law school and the university have been too timid in their treatment of the date of the implementation of salary increases. Salary increases should be made effective no earlier than ten months after the start of the fiscal year. This would give the university and the law school substantial new interest income - without adversely affecting [my law school]'s status in the U.S. News & World Report rankings. The amount of interest foregone by individual faculty members is relatively minuscule and most of faculty members won't notice the difference between the present value and the future value of their salary increases, and they may even appreciate the opportunity to defer payment of taxes on the delayed salary increases.

    4. Youth is good. And the youth movement should continue. In particular: the law school and the university ought to continue the present policy of granting younger faculty members (relatively) substantial salary increases while granting the "golden bears" very small salary increases. (I put aside here the phenomenon of aggressive golden bears; these are people who know how to lobby for themselves. Passive golden tears deserve what they get, which is very little.) The older folks aren't going anywhere. Besides, they don't need the money. To avoid problems with legislation prohibiting discriminatory treatment on the basis of age, the unproductivity of the "golden bears" and their inadequate performance, or both, should be meticulously documented.

    5. It seems likely that the law school and the university will continue to use the number of articles published in American law journals as the primary benchmark of faculty productivity. This is clearly the right thing to do. The U.S. News & World Report rankings are all that count (unless, of course, the question is the appropriate student-faculty ratio). Fluff - publication of books, online publishing, publishing in foreign journals, standing in one's field, and similar matters - should count much less, if at all. We have to take the world of rankings as we find it.

    Well, that's about it for now.

    But remember: ABC University [our university] cares for you. If you don't get what you want, there is always an open door somewhere where you can hash things out and perhaps achieve satisfaction. And I don't need to tell you that our law school is a community in which all watch out for the interest of all.

    Now let's get on with faculty recruitment. We have a great story to tell!

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    The dynamic evidence page

    Evidence marshaling software MarshalPlan


    Tuesday, August 27, 2013

    "I feel better now."


    Do you suppose Pres. Obama will say to himself Thursday, "I feel better now"?

    Will he feel the same way Friday?

    A year from now?

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    The dynamic evidence page

    Evidence marshaling software MarshalPlan


    Saturday, August 24, 2013

    Right of Confrontation in China?



    According to English-language CCTV and other media, a recorded videotape of Bo Xilai's spouse Gu Kailai was admitted against Bo Xilai in his criminal trial for corruption and other charges. Should I assume that the PRC does not recognize (even on paper) a right of confrontation that resembles the current form of the Confrontation Right in the United States?


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    The dynamic evidence page
    Evidence marshaling software MarshalPlan



    Brazil's Interesting Chief Justice


    Simon Romero, A Blunt Chief Justice Unafraid to Upset Brazil’s Status Quo NYTimes (August 23, 2013).

    I wonder if debates about (liberal or left-wing) "judicial activism" are being replayed in Brazil.



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    The dynamic evidence page
    Evidence marshaling software MarshalPlan

    Monday, August 19, 2013

    Does Thomas Nagel Say Anything about "Evidence"?

    Does Thomas Nagel's recent theorizing about "materialism" (see below for the link to his summary) say anything about the nature of evidence? I believe it does. Cf. Part III of P. Tillers, Are There Universal Principles or Forms of Evidential Inference?

    Go thou and read Thomas Nagel, The Core of 'Mind and Cosmos' NYTimes (August 18, 2013)!

    Nagel's introduction to his summary:

    This is a brief statement of positions defended more fully in my book “Mind and Cosmos: Why the Materialist Neo-Darwinian Conception of Nature Is Almost Certainly False,” which was published by Oxford University Press last year. Since then the book has attracted a good deal of critical attention, which is not surprising, given the entrenchment of the world view that it attacks. It seemed useful to offer a short summary of the central argument.

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    The dynamic evidence page

    Evidence marshaling software MarshalPlan


    Thursday, August 15, 2013

    Peggy Noonan on Privacy and the Surveillance State


    Peggy Noonan, What We Lose if We Give Up Privacy, Wall Street Journal (August 15, 2013).

    Snippet:

    Privacy is connected to personhood. It has to do with intimate things—the innards of your head and heart, the workings of your mind—and the boundary between those things and the world outside.

    A loss of the expectation of privacy in communications is a loss of something personal and intimate, and it will have broader implications. That is the view of Nat Hentoff, the great journalist and civil libertarian. He is 88 now and on fire on the issue of privacy. "The media has awakened," he told me. "Congress has awakened, to some extent." Both are beginning to realize "that there are particular constitutional liberty rights that [Americans] have that distinguish them from all other people, and one of them is privacy."

    Mr. Hentoff sees excessive government surveillance as violative of the Fourth Amendment, which protects "the right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures" and requires that warrants be issued only "upon probable cause . . . particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized."

    But Mr. Hentoff sees the surveillance state as a threat to free speech, too. About a year ago he went up to Harvard to speak to a class. He asked, he recalled: "How many of you realize the connection between what's happening with the Fourth Amendment with the First Amendment?" He told the students that if citizens don't have basic privacies—firm protections against the search and seizure of your private communications, for instance—they will be left feeling "threatened." This will make citizens increasingly concerned "about what they say, and they do, and they think." It will have the effect of constricting freedom of expression. Americans will become careful about what they say that can be misunderstood or misinterpreted, and then too careful about what they say that can be understood. The inevitable end of surveillance is self-censorship.

    All of a sudden, the room became quiet. "These were bright kids, interested, concerned, but they hadn't made an obvious connection about who we are as a people." We are "free citizens in a self-governing republic."


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    Evidence marshaling software MarshalPlan


    Thursday, August 08, 2013

    "Targeted" NSA Electronic Surveillance


    For certain purposes NSA claims it conducts surveillance only of "targets." But in NSA-speak "target" is a very squishy word. See Mark Rumold, What It Means to Be An NSA "Target": New Information Shows Why We Need Immediate FISA Amendments Act Reform (blog) Electronic Frontier Foundation (August 8, 2013):
    An important New York Times investigation from today reporting that the NSA "is searching the contents of vast amounts of Americans’ e-mail and text communications into and out of the country," coupled with leaked documents published by the Guardian, seriously calls into question the accuracy of crucial statements made by government officials about NSA surveillance.
    The government has previously tried to reassure the public about its use of FISA Amendments Act Section 702 surveillance practices, emphasizing that, under Section 702, the government may not “intentionally target any U.S. citizen, any other U.S. person, or anyone located within the United States." Indeed, the chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee Senator Feinstein, in a letter to constituents who wrote to her expressing concern about the NSA's spying program,said this: "[T]he government cannot listen to an American’s telephone calls or read their emails without a court warrant issued upon a showing of probable cause."
    We’ve written before about the word games the government plays in describing its surveillance practices: “acquire,” “collect,” and “content” are all old government favorites. The New York Times report proves Feinstein statement is false, and it's clear it’s time to add “target” to the list of word games as well.
    When “Target” Means Searching a Specific Person’s Communications
    First, at least this much is clear: a “target” under the FAA must be (a) a non-US person and (b) not physically located within the United States. A “person,” for purposes of the FAA, includes individuals as well as “any group, entity, association, corporation, or foreign power.”  Under the FAA, the government can thus "target" a single individual (e.g., Vladimir Putin), a small group of people (e.g., Pussy Riot), or a formal corporation or entity (e.g., Gazprom).
    So, when the NSA decides to “target” someone (or something), it turns its specific surveillance vacuum at them. The NSA then believes it can intercept and analyze all electronic communications of the target (telephone conversations, email conversations, chat, web browsing, etc) so long as the “target” is overseas and remains overseas. As others have noted, this includes conversations the “target” has with Americans, which would then be “incidentally” collected. Keep in mind this does not require a warrant or even the approval of a court, which is only one way Senator Feinstein's reassurance was demonstrably false. But there's still more.
    When “Target” Means Searching Everyone’s Communications
    Once a target is established, the NSA believes it can expand the sweep of its interception far more broadly than the communications of the particular, identified target. Notably, the NSA’sprocedures state (emphasis added):
    [I]n those cases where NSA seeks to acquire communications about the target that are not to or from the target, NSA will either employ an Internet Protocol filter to ensure that the person from whom it seeks to obtain foreign intelligence information is located overseas, or it will target Internet links that terminate in a foreign country.
    In plain English: the NSA believes it not only can (1) intercept the communications of the target, but also (2) intercept communications about a target, even if the target isn’t a party to the communication. The most likely way to assess if a communication is “about” a target is to conduct a content analysis of communications, probably based on specific search terms or selectors.
    And that, folks, is what we call a content dragnet.
    Importantly, under the NSA’s rules, when the agency intercepts communications about a target, the author or speaker of those communications does not, thereby, become a target: the target remains the original, non-US person. But, because the target remains a non-US person, the most robust protection for Americans’ communications under the FISA Amendments Act (and, indeed, the primary reassurance the government has given about the surveillance) flies out the window. If you communicate about a target of NSA surveillance, your citizenship is irrelevant: the only thing standing between you and NSA surveillance is your IP address or the fiber optic path through which your communications flow.
    Privacy Protections Must Be Stronger than an IP Address or the Path our Communications Happen to Take
    The NSA only limits this type of broad content dragnet in two ways: a filter based on IP addresses or directing its surveillance at “Internet links that terminate in a foreign country.”1
    Presumably, the IP filter is used in circumstances where the NSA’s surveillance is being conducted on U.S. soil. The agency simply filters out known U.S. IP addresses and scans the content of the rest. But there are a host of reasons that an American’s IP address might not be representative of their location. First, there are a variety of privacy-enhancing technologies – like Tor or VPNs – that could easily make wholly domestic communications appear as though they were occurring overseas. Second, IP addresses, in general, are imperfect measures of a person’s location: if a large ISP (like, for example, AT&T) is assigned a block of IP addresses, an IP address assigned to someone in Canada one day could be assigned to an American the next, and vice versa. And all this, of course, says nothing about nationality or legal status: a given IP address says nothing about the citizenship of the person using the device.
    The only other limitation on this type of content dragnet is targeting Internet links in foreign countries. Again, like IP filtering, this is not an effective way to ensure that Americans’ communications are not intercepted and analyzed. In particular, because third-party providers (like Google, Yahoo, or Microsoft) tend to have redundant and distributed operations around the world, there’s a very real chance that your wholly domestic email, sent between two U.S. citizens might travel and be "stored" on data centers around the world. Targeting an “Internet link” that terminates abroad would inevitably carry large amounts of purely "domestic" communications.
    An Example: Targeting Vladimir Putin (and Everyone Else)
    At this point, it might be useful to provide an example. Say the NSA wants to target Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, under Section 702. Putin is (a) a non-US-person, (b) (usually) located outside the United States, and (c) would clearly be expected to communicate foreign intelligence information. He is thus eligible for targeting under Section 702. The NSA would then intercept Putin’s calls, emails, chats, and other communications (including those directed at the United States and involving United States citizens).
    Under the NSA’s rules, though, the agency can also intercept all communications about Putin. To accomplish this, NSA presumably performs a content analysis -- probably occurring both within the United States and overseas -- of large swaths of communications, using deep packet inspection to root out electronic communications about Putin.
    In this example, under the NSA’s procedures, a U.S. citizen sending an email about Putin’sfrequent, shirtless poses to another U.S. citizen could have their communications intercepted and analyzed by NSA under a variety of conditions:
    • if they're outside the U.S.;
    • if they're inside the U.S., using Tor, and their IP address looks like it's outside the U.S.;
    • if they're inside the U.S., using a VPN, and their IP address looks like it's outside the U.S.;
    • if they're inside the U.S. and their IP address doesn't accurately reflect their location for any host of reasons;
    • if they're inside the U.S. and their communications are backed up or stored abroad.
    In each of these examples, the NSA believes it has the authority to intercept your communications, even though in most examples the person doing the communicating is (1) a US person, (2) located within the United States, (3) communicating with someone within the United States, and (4) not communicating with the "target" of an investigation. While the NSA may not intercept every email about Putin’s shirtless poses, based on its procedures, it believes it has the authority. Such an interpretation of the government’s authority under the FAA violates the spirit, if not the letter, of the law. Not to mention the Constitution.
    After a Full and Public Investigation, We Need to Rein in the NSA's Use of Section 702
    Lately, the focus of the NSA debate has shifted to the NSA’s domestic associational tracking program — the collection and storage of millions of Americans call record information. And rightly so: the program is unconstitutional, and EFF has filed suit to stop it immediately. But Section 702 should not be forgotten: it needs attention ­— and reform —as well.  
    As the debate continues, when Diane Feinstein tells you that “the government cannot listen to an American's telephone calls or read their emails without a court warrant issued upon a showing of probable cause,” she’s not telling you the truth: the government can read your emails without ever even asking a judge and without even attempting to demonstrate that probable cause exists, just so long as your emails have a “foreign” IP address or your communications happen to leave the country.
    Our constitutional right to communicate without our government listening in has been fundamentally reinterpreted and diminished in secret: the NSA's procedures show that all that stands between government surveillance of our communication is an IP address. But the constitution demands more. Join us, and over 500,000 others, in calling on Congress to establish a special committee to investigate the NSA’s domestic spying operation, to rein in the laws the government uses to conduct this type of spying, and to hold elected officials accountable for misleading the American public.  
    • 1.The NSA’s use of the term “internet links” is not clear, and the procedures don’t spell out precisely what they mean. We assume “internet link” to mean telecom switches and hubs located overseas.


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