Monday, December 11, 2006

Bungler-Murder Hypothesis 2.2

We had Bungler-Murder Hypothesis 2.1. Perhaps we now have Bungler-Murder Hypothesis 2.2 -- because, according to the International Herald Tribune, Kotvtun may have been leaving traces of polonium 210 before he went to London and met with Litninenko and Lugovoi:
German investigators have been focusing on Kovtun after traces of polonium-210, the radioactive element that killed Litvinenko, were found in and around Hamburg.

Kovtun visited the city, where his ex-wife lives, on the eve of his Nov. 1 trip to London, where he met with Litvinenko. The former agent said he fell ill that day and he died three weeks later. Russian prosecutors say that Kovtun has since been diagnosed with radiation sickness.

Lugovoi has denied that either he or Kovtun were involved in Litvinenko's death.

I classify the hypothesis involving Kovtun as a variant of the 2.0 class of hypotheses because in both hypotheses polonium 210 was mishandled and both Kovtun and Lugovoi are ex-KGB agents. But this hypothesis might eventually end up also being a variant of the 3.0 poisoned drink hypothesis. I have no automatic system for classifying and filing investigative hypotheses.
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