Friday, May 11, 2007

Joseph Laronge Demonstrates How to Use Rationale to Portray a Witness Credibility Problem

The following illustration is found on Joseph Laronge's blog Inference Path:

The example is not trivial: witness credibility is perhaps the most complex inference problem known to ordinary human mortals. (I say "ordinary" to put to one side esoteric problems such as string theory and quantum computing.)

Laronge's mode of visualizing credibility problems seems analytically correct and makes it possible in Rationale readily to marshal evidence bearing on distinct credibility attributes, or variables. (Peripheral note: I would add to the list of variables; I would include, e.g., objectivity vel non and ability to communicate [or use language] vel non.)

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