Thursday, March 19, 2009

Law Reviews and Legal Scholarship in the Age of Cyberspace

It would have been hard to imagine just a decade ago: major U.S. newspapers are going out of business. (Quixotically enough, I recently renewed my subscription to hard copies of the New York Times.) The same fate has not yet befallen U.S. law reviews.

But most American law reviews are not, and perhaps never were, subject to normal market forces; most of these student-edited law journals were and are subsidized by law schools.

Subscriptions to major law reviews have fallen dramatically in the last couple of decades. Is the demise of student-edited law reviews at hand?

Well, even if we ignore the nebulousness of the notion of "demise," it's not yet clear that Armageddon for law reviews is at hand. This is because law schools have non-economic reasons for wanting to keep law journals alive.

It may be true -- though demonstrating this would be tricky -- that most "major" American student-edited law reviews are kept alive in significant part because "major" law schools want to maintain some control over access to the halls of legal academe and over the kinds of scholarship that secure access to U.S. legal academe. But there are signs that the gatekeeper role of these law reviews is on the wane.

That's probably a good thing.

The market, she is tricky, fickle, and often downright stupid. But the market is also often relatively democratic and open to innovation.

In the age of cyberspace budding legal scholars have some serious alternatives to student-edited "major" law reviews.

It is true that law schools will very probably still use "major" hard-copy student-edited law reviews as gatekeepers. But cyberspace and other developments are gradually creating alternatives to "major" law schools themselves. As California's Bernard Witkin demonstrated decades ago, such alternatives always existed. But in the age of cyberspace the prospects for market-oriented legal scholarship have grown and multiplied.

&&&

I confess that personal history motivates this post. Decades ago, I swore not to submit my stuff to "major" American law reviews. I departed from my populist anti-establishmentarian line generally only when a law journal invited me to submit a paper. Otherwise I have published in other venues. I took this anti-establishmentarian tack when, shortly after graduation, I tried to publish a study of Hegel's theory of the "duty to die for the state." I submitted my paper to about five "major" law reviews. They rejected my paper (but, in fairness to them, usually only by close votes).

I later realized I was literally ahead of my time: Hegel was not yet in vogue in American law schools. Had I tried publishing the paper a couple of decades later, I would have met with success. But by then I had completely repudiated Hegel and I had little taste for talking about things Hegelian. (The rejected paper was an excellent piece of work. [I concluded that Hegel's argument for the alleged duty to die for the state fails.])
This experience led me to swear off law reviews. I instead worked at redoing part of Wigmore's treatise.

Of course, by swearing off law reviews (for the most part) I figuratively shot myself in my figurative academic foot. But I don't regret what I did. I think my scholarship was more interesting as a result. I discovered, to my pleasure if not entirely to my surprise, that there are lots of inquisitive, creative, serious, and thoughtful people out there in the legal profession and in the wider world. Conclusion: publishing for the "market" and for the "world" has its compensations, very substantial compensations.

Postscript: Bernard Witkin's model of legal scholarship is not the model to which I aspire. But that's another question. My point here is that Witkin succeeded in doing legal scholarship on his own.

the dynamic evidence page

coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

The High Probability of Very Improbable Events

"'Everything we see has about a zero probability,' [Peter H.] Westfall said." Carl Bialik, "The Crash Calculations," THE NUMBERS GUY (March 3, 2008).

"'With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is apt to happen.'" Gina Kolata, "1-in-a-Trillion Coincidence, You Say? Not Really, Experts Find," NYTimes (Feb. 27, 1990) (quoting statisticians Persi Diaconis and Frederick Mosteller).

the dynamic evidence page

coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

Sunday, March 15, 2009

MarshalPlan 2.3, a System for Marshaling Evidence in Legal Settings such as Trials and Pretrial Investigations

I have slightly updated and posted my evidence marshaling "stacks" (software) for the software MarshalPlan. Below please find general information about MarshalPlan and about how to download the software.

&&&

Years ago David Schum and I developed the notion of an evidence marshaling system. We laid out the underlying theory of this evidence marshaling system in A Theory of Preliminary Fact Investigation. We developed a kind of computer embodiment, or computer-based expression, of our idea of an evidence marshaling system. Eventually we decided to call our system "MarshalPlan."

About one year ago I released MarshalPlan 2.2. This moniker -- MarshalPlan 2.2 (now 2.3) -- amounted to a bit of self-mockery: MarshalPlan 2.x is not a software "prototype." Far from it! However, MarshalPlan 2.2 and 2.3 are more than scratchings on a page that state in words (text) how a MarshalPlan application might work. MarshalPlan 2.3 is a software application based on the user-friendly programming language Revolution Enterprise(tm). This application -- MarshalPlan 2.3 -- illustrates -- with images, fields, buttons (links), and so on -- how a computer program to support the marshaling and assessment of evidence in preparation for possible trials and also for the conduct of trials, might work.

&&&

To retrieve MarshalPlan 2.3 click on this link. Download all of the Revolution stacks into a single folder on your computer. These stacks all have the suffix "rev". To make these stacks run properly you need a "Revolution Player." To get this free player go here and download the version of the player (either Windows or Mac OSX) that you need. Then drag-drop the "Network.rev" icon onto the "Revolution Player" icon or open the Revolution Player icon and then open the Network.rev stack, or file. You should be in business now; the buttons, or links, in the various stacks should allow you to navigate between the stacks as well as within the stacks. (However, it is possible you will have to drag-drop all of the stacks onto the Revolution Player icon if you wish to navigate between the stacks. Please let me know if this turns out to be the case.)

&&&

SOME VERY IMPORTANT CAVEATS: There are numerous things wrong with the software application that you will retrieve by clicking on the link or links below, and the application that you will retrieve has numerous gaps and defects, including the following:

1. In the application itself there is very, very, very little textual explanation of the theory behind the strategies that are embedded in MarshalPlan 2.3.
To find that theory and those explanations you will have to (i) read the article I mentioned earlier, A Theory of Preliminary Fact Investigation, and (ii) wander about my personal web site. If you want a really comprehensive explanation of MarshalPlan, you will have to invite me to give a leisurely talk (preferably on a tropical island or some other attractive venue).
2. Some buttons and links don't work. When that happens, try other buttons and links.

3. Some important stacks are entirely missing. E.g., the "Narratives" stack. The most important missing stacks are those having to do with the development of evidential argument from evidence to factual propositions and with the assessment of the probative value of the evidence. For a discussion of the methods that might be used for this purpose, see Special Issue on Graphic and Visual Representations of Evidence and Inference in Legal Settings, 6 Law, Probability and Risk Nos. 1-4 (Oxford University Press, 2007).

4. MarshalPlan 2.3 is not set up to be linked to a database. This is a most serious deficiency. But -- in my defense -- I repeat: MarshalPlan 2.3 is NOT a software prototype. It is, rather, an elaborate visual illustration of some of the directions that development of software for marshaling evidence in legal settings should take.

&&&

the dynamic evidence page

coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

Saturday, March 14, 2009

The Near-Term Prospects for fMRI Lie Detection

2 Margaret A. Boden, MIND AS MACHINE 1227-1228 (Oxford: Clarendon Press 2006):

Linking rats or monkeys to robots is a major exercise, not undertaken lightly. But brain-scanning studies on humans are less tricky, and are multiplying merrily. ... As for the professional journals, by the time you read this book they will have carried thousands of PET/fMRI reports.

Their theoretical significance, however, is debatable. Brain imaging has even been dubbed "a neo-phrenological fad", because of the difficulty of interpreting it in terms of psychological functions (Uttal 2001). There are four main problems.

[snip, snip]

And fourth, one can't sensibly suggest just what's being done by the high activity (even if one knew it was excitatory activity) without a theory at the cognitive/psychological level, specifying just what computations might be involved when the thought in question occurs. Usually, no such theory is available. ... In short, most brain imaging is an a-theoretical fishing expedition: more natural history than science. As Gazzinga had put it, before this new 'industry' burgeoned, neuroscience needs cognitive science.

Responsible researchers know all this, of course, and are careful. But the irresponsible ones--and a fortiori the journalists--seemingly don't, and aren't.

FINIS

the dynamic evidence page

coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

Friday, March 13, 2009

The Sophistication of (Some) Common Sense

In thinking about juries, jurors, lay knowledge, and lay participation in the legal process, it is worth thinking about the implications of insights such as the following:
Men are in a more difficult intellectual position than Life robots. We don't know the fundamental physics of our world, and we can't even be sure that its fundamental physics is describable in finite terms. Even if we knew the physical laws, they seem to preclude precise knowledge of an initial state and precise calculation of its future both for quantum mechanical reasons and because the continuous functions needed to represent fields seem to involve an infinite amount of information.

This example suggests that much of human mental structure is not an accident of evolution or even of the physics of our world, but is required for successful problem solving behavior and must be designed into or evolved by any system that exhibits such behavior.

John McCarthy, "Ascribing Mental Qualities to Machines" (1979)" (with updates by author here & there)

the dynamic evidence page

coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

The Riddle of Non-Individualized Forensic Expertise

Well, that -- the topic in the header -- is a real mouthful. It is nevertheless the problem I want to say a few words about.

In my last post I quoted the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals. That court said:

Judge Womack contends that our exclusion of expert conclusions concerning the truthfulness of allegations is illogical. He isolates three different types of statements that an expert might make: (1) children who are fantasizing or being manipulated behave in certain ways, (2) this child did not behave in those ways, and (3) this child was not fantasizing or being manipulated. He claims that (3) necessarily follows from (1) and (2), and, because we permit expert statements of the type (1) and (2) variety, we must necessarily permit conclusions of type (3). But, for his argument to work, Judge Womack must assume that the expert testifies that all children who are fantasizing or being manipulated behave in certain ways. If only some exhibit the behaviors in question then a conclusion that a particular child is not fantasizing or being manipulated because he does not exhibit the behaviors does not necessarily follow. But, given the imprecision of psychological science and the variability of human nature, no competent and honest expert could make the global statement necessary to satisfy Judge Womack's syllogism. At most, statements of type (1) and (2) would provide some inductive support for a conclusion of type (3). But an expert opinion of type (3) would also be supported by personal observations and lay knowledge of human behavior. The latter is clearly the exclusive province of the jury, and the former, along with statements of type (1) and (2) can be imparted to the jury by the expert. The jury can then make the inferences necessary to determine whether a type (3) conclusion is warranted without the expert commenting on that issue.
Here's the riddle: If the expert's expertise is relevant to the issue at hand (e.g., "Was this particular eyewitness identification accurate or inacurate", "Does this particular witness suffer from delusions?", "Does the syndrome evidence show that this particular child probably delayed reporting because of embarrassment rather than for another reason?", and so on), why isn't the expert not only permitted but required to give an opinion about the behavior of the specific individual? Is it because the expert has no expertise about the specific individual? Well, no that cannot be -- for then the expert's expertise would not be relevant to the actual issue at hand. Is it because the expert would invade the province of the jury by giving an opinion? But courts have already crossed that imaginary Rubicon by allowing the expert to testify, haven't they? Well, then, is it because the expert doesn't know all the evidence and facts about the individual that the jury knows? Well, that's not going to explain things, is it, if the expert has sat through the entire trial and knows everything (and more) than the jury knows. So what is the explanation? We can't very well say (as the Texas court seems to suggest) that it's because the jury knows better than the expert how to combine different kinds of information (or, as some would put it, different reference classes). If that were the explanation, it would require the premise that the experimental evidence of the expert failed to take into account relevant variables or, stated differently, that the expert's expert knowledge does not speak to the individual, particularized issue at hand.

Isn't it the case that the position that courts take -- let the expert testify in general terms (about, e.g., factors that affect the accuracy of eyewitness identification in general) but not in particular terms (e.g., about the accuracy of this witness' identification) -- is an unprincipled compromise and muddle, one that straddles the fear of doing without helpful information and the fear of allowing the decision in a case depend on unhelpful or irrelevant information?

the dynamic evidence page

coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

Tuesday, March 03, 2009

Induction & Reference Classes in a Criminal Trial in Texas

In Schutz v. Texas, 957 S.W.2d 52 (Tex. Crim. App. 1997) accused was convicted of aggravated sexual assault on his six year old daughter. At his trial an expert for the prosecution was allowed to testify that the child's allegations were not the result of manipulation or fantasy. The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals (the state's highest appellate court in criminal cases) held that the expert's testimony was equivalent to prohibited testimony about the truthfulness of the child witness. The Court also said that "evidence that a person's allegations are the result of manipulation or fantasy is inadmissible. Such evidence never assists the jury because the jury is just as capable as the expert of drawing the conclusions involved." In note 10 of its opinion the Court of Criminal Appeals responded to a critique of this point by Judge Womack in his concurring opinion:
Judge Womack contends that our exclusion of expert conclusions concerning the truthfulness of allegations is illogical. He isolates three different types of statements that an expert might make: (1) children who are fantasizing or being manipulated behave in certain ways, (2) this child did not behave in those ways, and (3) this child was not fantasizing or being manipulated. He claims that (3) necessarily follows from (1) and (2), and, because we permit expert statements of the type (1) and (2) variety, we must necessarily permit conclusions of type (3). But, for his argument to work, Judge Womack must assume that the expert testifies that all children who are fantasizing or being manipulated behave in certain ways. If only some exhibit the behaviors in question then a conclusion that a particular child is not fantasizing or being manipulated because he does not exhibit the behaviors does not necessarily follow. But, given the imprecision of psychological science and the variability of human nature, no competent and honest expert could make the global statement necessary to satisfy Judge Womack's syllogism. At most, statements of type (1) and (2) would provide some inductive support for a conclusion of type (3). But an expert opinion of type (3) would also be supported by personal observations and lay knowledge of human behavior. The latter is clearly the exclusive province of the jury, and the former, along with statements of type (1) and (2) can be imparted to the jury by the expert. The jury can then make the inferences necessary to determine whether a type (3) conclusion is warranted without the expert commenting on that issue.
This is good legal food for philosophical thought.

the dynamic evidence page

coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

Sunday, March 01, 2009

Character Traits as Reference Classes

In United States v. Williams the Third Circuit Court of Appeals spoke of judgments about the probative value of character as "sweeping and non-individualized judgment[s]." In Commonwealth v. Adjutant the Supreme Judicial Court of Massachusetts saw a big difference between evidence such as the reputation of a person for violence and evidence that a person had attacked other people with boiling water, a butcher knife, and a crowbar.

I have some questions about "reputedly violent people" and "people who attack other people with crowbars etc."

Although reference classes are thought to be an ingredient or basis for statistical inference, can we nevertheless legitimately refer to "people who are reputedly violent" and "people who attack other people with crowbars" as "reference classes"?

What if you and I have never actually observed the behavior of a person who is reputedly violent or what if you and I have never observed the other behavior of a person who has attacked another person with a crowbar? Perhaps these are "reference classes" in the sense that they are culturally-inherited generalizations based on societal experience? Or are they instead or just as much "reference classes," or "generalizations," that people such as you and I extract from the other beliefs that you and I have about human behavior, human motivations, human derangement, etc.? If we extract such reference classes from our other beliefs, are we learning from or making use of experience? What if the beliefs from which we extract reference classes rest in part on experience?
What is the relationship between the putative reference classes (i) "people who are reputedly violent" and (ii) "people who attack another person with a crowbar"?
A. Is #(ii) a subset of #(i)?

B. Does #(ii) displace #(i)?

C. Even though #(ii) seems more specific, or more narrow, than #(i), does #(i) carry some information that #(ii) does not harbor?

  • Of course, there is the preliminary question whether #(i) harbors any information whatever about members of that reference class. I answer peremptorily: "yes." But by what epistemic right do I do so?
  • Questions ## A-C above were prompted by my recent reading of some material by James Franklin on reference classes. He thinks it's time to think further about reference classes. I agree.

    the dynamic evidence page

    coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    Saturday, February 28, 2009

    Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court on Specific Acts to Show Victim's Character

    In Commonwealth v. Adjutant, 443 Mass. 649, 824 N.E.2d 1 (2004, opinion corrected 2005) the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court held that the criminal defendant in a homicide case had the right to introduce specific acts of the victim on other occasions to show that the (alleged) victim was the aggressor in the incident that led to the victim's death.

    This above statement of the Massachusetts court's holding is as dry as dust. The concrete facts of the case have more punch.

    The defendant, a woman, was an employee of an "escort service." She went to the home of the "victim" to give him a "full body massage." Defendant killed the victim with a knife. She claimed she did so in self-defense after an argument erupted after the "victim" demanded that defendant have intercourse with him and, she claimed, she refused.

    To show that the "victim" was the aggressor, defendant offered evidence showing the alleged victim's previous violent behavior and reputation for violence. Except for an incident involving victim's use of a crowbar in some other fracas, the trial court rejected these offers.

    In a footnote the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court recited:

    In connection with Adjutant's sentencing, evidence of three violent acts committed by Whiting [the victim] while he was intoxicated and within three months of his death was presented to the court. In one of the instances, Whiting, while on cocaine, allegedly chased after his neighbor "like a raging bull" when confronted about vandalizing the common yard. In another, he allegedly threatened two neighbors with a butcher knife. And in the third, he allegedly threw boiling water on a friend with whom he was arguing.
    Should such specific evidence about the alleged victim's behavior on other occasions be excluded (during the guilt phase of the trial) and should the defendant be limited to evidence about the victim's reputation for violence in order to save time and reduce the risk of "prejudice"? The Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court said "no."

    Do you think the excluded evidence had probative value? Do you think it had a lot of probative value? Do you think it had more -- or much more -- probative value than did evidence about the reputation of the victim for violence? Do you think a jury should have heard such evidence of specific violent acts of the alleged victim -- acts such as threatening neighbors with a butcher knife or throwing boiling water on a "friend"? Do you think that if defendant's conviction had not been reversed, this story had the makings of a good (or bad) Hollywood movie?

    What do you think now about the proposition, "Character has little probative value"? Would you now say, "Well, there is character and then there is character. Some character evidence seems to have a considerable amount of value"?

    Knowing what you know about the "victim" Whiting in Adjutant, would you have allowed your teenage daughter or son to have a late-night dinner with Whiting if Whiting had survived his encounter with defendant Adjutant? (Do you think the last question is nothing more than provocative rhetoric. Or does my question make a serious point?)

    the dynamic evidence page

    coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    Due Process and the Victim's (Alleged) Character

    The last time I looked, Maine did not allow a criminal defendant to introduce evidence of the alleged victim's character or propensity to show legally-material conduct by the victim -- e.g., to show that the victim was the aggressor (to show that, e.g., defendant assaulted or killed the alleged victim in self-defense).

    Is it conceivable that Maine's rule violates a criminal defendant's due process right to a fair hearing and to present a defense?

    I think the answer is that no court today would say "yes." But should judges perhaps change their minds about this?

    Most states do allow criminal defendants to offer a pertinent character trait of the alleged victim; Maine is the outlier. But do states violate the due process clause, or should they be held to do so, if they refuse (as they do) to allow a defendant to show an alleged victim's propensity by offering evidence of the victim's acts? Testimony that the victim had the reputation of being a violent person doesn't have much punch and in some instances -- depending on the victim's character -- the evidence about the victim's character should have much punch.

    Similar questions can be asked about a possible third-party perpetrator, a person who allegedly committed the crime that a defendant is charged with having committed.

    N.B. Specific acts, wrongs, or crimes of the alleged victim may find their way into the courtroom even under today's law of evidence. For example, an alleged victim's threats against a defendant accused of murdering the victim are admissible to support a defense such as self-defense. (Such threats are not viewed as a "character trait" or a "propensity.")

    the dynamic evidence page

    coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    Friday, February 27, 2009

    A Constitutional Right to Offer Character Evidence?

    An important dictum noted by Joannes Untalan Vinarao-Pilapil:

    United States v. Williams, 458 F.3d 312, 317 n. 5 (3d Cir. 2006):

    We acknowledge that there might be cases in which an application of Rule 404(b)'s prohibition against propensity evidence arguably encroaches on a defendant's right to present a full defense. See Crane v. Kentucky, 476 U.S. 683, 690, 106 S. Ct. 2142, 90 L. Ed. 2d 636 (1986) (holding that "the Constitution guarantees criminal defendants a meaningful opportunity to present a complete defense") (internal quotation marks and citations omitted). The Advisory Committee Notes following Rule 401 explain that rules such as Rule 404 and those that follow are meant to prohibit certain types of evidence that are otherwise clearly "relevant evidence," but that nevertheless create more prejudice and confusion than is justified by their probative value. This, however, is a sweeping and non-individualized judgment, and the drafters have provided exceptions to this general rule for certain types of crimes. See Rules 413, 414 & 415, Federal Rules of Evidence (providing that evidence of the defendant's commission of an offense of sexual assault or child molestation is admissible for any purpose). Under exceptional circumstances, therefore, it could plausibly be argued that a defendant has a constitutional right to present propensity evidence otherwise barred by Rule 404(b). See Holmes v. South Carolina, 126 S. Ct. 1727, 1731- 1733, 164 L. Ed. 2d 503 (2006) (observing that "state and federal rulemakers have broad latitude under the Constitution to establish rules excluding evidence from criminal trials" and that rules restricting the ability of a defendant to offer evidence that another person committed a crime are "widely accepted," but that evidence rules that significantly infringe upon the interest of the accused and are disproportionate to the purposes they are designed to serve are impermissible). But we need not reach this question here...

    the dynamic evidence page

    coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    Saturday, February 21, 2009

    Back to Basics: Wrongdoers, Victims, and Procedural Rules -- and Alleged Wrongdoers and Alleged Victims

    Recently a law professor, while referring to a debate about statutes of limitations for civil actions based on claims of sexual wrongdoing, reportedly said that whether you should favor the elimination of limitations periods for such cases depends on whether you favor sexual predators or whether you favor the victims of sexual predators.

    This is pure humbug. Moreover, it is dangerous humbug.

    Let's begin with a moral reductio ad absurdum:
    The argument made by the law professor might be made about any rule of procedure or evidence in a case involving a claim or charge of sexual misconduct. If the law professor's argument were valid, we would have to conclude that rules of procedure, rules of evidence, and trials are unnecessary in cases involving claims or charges of sexual misconduct.
    The law professor's benchmark -- Who are you for: victims or vermin? -- neglects the utterly, completely, wholly, absolutely basic point -- a point taught, one hopes, in the first day of any law student's legal education, if not long before (e.g., in kindergarten) -- that part of what trials are for is to determine whether sexual misconduct took place.
    A procedural rule -- a rule such as a statute of limitations -- might serve to reduce the frequency of certain kinds of erroneous outcomes (false positives, erroneous assignments of legal liability when they are factually unwarranted). To be sure, such a procedural rule (like almost rule of procedure or evidence) also creates a risk of error -- in this case, a certainty in certain classes of cases -- of a different kind: that legal liability will not be imposed when legal liability is factually warranted. But the debate about whether a rule of procedure (or any other evidentiary or procedural rule) should or should not be used should depend on the comparative magnitude and frequency of these two types of risks and the amount of harm thought to be done by these two kinds of errors (and by other considerations) -- and not by the question of whether one prefers victims or malefactors.
    The argument that your view of a debate about a procedural right or rule such as the statutes of limitations should depend on whether you prefer sexual predators to victims or whether, instead, you prefer victims to predators ignores the existence of two groups of people: (1) alleged victims who are not in fact victims, and (2) alleged sexual wrongdoers who are not in fact wrongdoers. The law professor's argument would have more meat if mistaken claims and charges of sexual wrongdoing were never made and if innocent people were never charged with sexual wrongdoing. Alas, alleged victims are not always actual victims and alleged sexual wrongdoers are not always actual sexual malefactors. See, e.g., State of New Jersey v. Michaels, 136 N.J. 299, 642 A.2d 1372 (1994)(young female day care worker falsely accused and wrongly convicted of sexually abusing her young charges 174 times). See generally Dorothy Rabinowitz, No Crueler Tyrannies: Accusation, False Witness, and Other Terrors of Our Times (2004)

    the dynamic evidence page

    coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    consulting

    Friday, February 20, 2009

    An Improved Deductive Argument

    An extraordinarily astute observer -- an anonymous Cardozo colleague (who very probably wishes to avoid the embarrassment of being associated with my blogs) -- points out that the proposed inference in the below argument is valid only if it is assumed that Hs must prefer either L or ~L; Hs cannot be in the position of having no preferences about L.

    For your convenience, the argument in issue is:

    Stipulation: All Hs prefer P or ~P [Hs prefer P or ~P but not both]
    Premise 1: if H prefers P --> H prefers L
    Premise 2: if H prefers ~P --> H prefers ~L
    Premise 3: (H prefers L) is True
    [Therefore]: The inference, or conclusion, [(H prefers P) is True] is valid
    So let's restate the argument this way:
    Stipulation 1: All Hs prefer P or ~P [Hs prefer P or ~P but not both]
    Stpulation 2: All Hs prefer L or ~L [Hs prefer L or ~L but not both]
    Premise 1: if H prefers P --> H prefers L
    Premise 2: if H prefers ~P --> H prefers ~L
    Premise 3: (H prefers L) is True
    [Therefore]: The inference, or conclusion, [(H prefers P) is True] is valid
    So now we have a better deductive argument, apparently an ironclad one. But this will just go to prove that a perfectly good deductive argument can get you into a lot of trouble.

    &&&

    Flash!: My astute colleague makes the further point:

    If you are going to add the assumption that either H prefers L or H prefers -L but not both, I think you can drop premise 1. You just need H prefers -P to imply H prefers -L.
    I think my colleague is correct. But at the moment I will proceed on the assumption that logical overkill is not always a bad thing. Besides, since I want to get his basic point out in a hurry and since I am slow on the uptake, I will leave the modified argument (above) unchanged for the moment.

    the dynamic evidence page

    coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    A Little Help with Some Deductive Reasoning, Please

    I need a little help with a deductive argument. Please tell me if the last proposition in the below argument is true or false:
    Stipulation: All Hs prefer P or ~P [Hs prefer P or ~P but not both]
    Premise 1: if H prefers P --> H prefers L
    Premise 2: if H prefers ~P --> H prefers ~L
    Premise 3: (H prefers L) is True
    [Therefore]: The inference, or conclusion, [(H prefers P) is True] is valid
    N.B. In the above argument the symbol "~" means "not" or "negation."

    &&&
    "Why do I ask?," you ask.

    That's a fair question. So I'll answer it.

    Answer: The above argument may become part of a broader argument; it may become embedded in a broader argument.

    I may post the broader argument later. Or maybe I won't. (Now there's deductive logic for you!)

    If I do post the broader argument, I won't hold you responsible for the broader argument. And you won't in fact be responsible for it -- and that's a fact.

    So, someone in the silent majority, you help out. If you do, your reward will be the knowledge that you have contributed to knowledge -- and to the assessment of you-are-for-us-or-against-us reasoning.

    the dynamic evidence page

    coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    Who Are You For? And Once I Have Your Answer I Will Know What Rights Certain Kinds of Criminal Defendants Ought to Have. Isn't That Correct?

    A student newspaper recently reported that a law professor recently said:
    You are either for sexual predators or you are for their victims.
    Well now, what do you think of that?

    In asking ths question, I am not alluding to Biblical or Presidential statements asserting that "you" are either for something or against something.

    The law professor's statement made me think of slogans that were tossed about in the 1960s during the Warren Court controversies:

    Either you are for criminals or you're for their victims [or law & order, or whatnot].
    However fractured our debates and opinions might still be about the rights of criminal defendants, I thought we had gotten beyond such slogans.

    I'm astonished. And I shudder. The law professor's statement, taken literally, implies that alleged(!) sexual predators have no rights. (Indeed, one wonders whether the law professor thinks it is worth bothering to have a trial for [alleged] sexual predators. After all, they're sexual predators, so why bother? Isn't that the logic of the position?)

  • Next Monday I will find a copy of that newspaper and I will quote it exactly. I don't want to be accused of exaggeration.
  • the dynamic evidence page

    coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    Monday, February 16, 2009

    Voodoo Science in Some Putative Lie Detection Technologies?

    See Voodoo science in fMRI and voice analysis to detect deception: compare and contrast. See also Legal threat for criticising neurobabble 'lie detector', which reports the use of threat of legal action to silence a putative debunker's challenge to a putative lie detection technology using voice analysis.

    Perhaps the most depressing news from these blogs is that research into some or many of these technologies has been heavily funded by government money.

    the dynamic evidence page

    coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    Sunday, February 15, 2009

    Some Matters That Influence the Law of Evidence and the Workings of Proof

    The following general matters (among many others) influence the shape of the law of evidence:

    Ignorance (incomplete knowledge of the world)
    Uncertainty (inconclusive evidence & uncertain evidential inference)
    Time (proof as temporal process, pretrial investigation, and the like)
    Rhetoric (persuasion, advocacy, similar matters)
    Scarcity (scarcity of resources, efficiency concerns)
    Social values (culture [including, e.g., the value attached to "freedom"], similar matters)
    Political concerns
    Historical practice
    Accident

    Other variables might be listed in addition to or within the above classes of variables, constraints, purposes, "interests," etc. For example:

    Religious beliefs
    Social harmony
    Crime reduction
    Market efficiency
    Family stability
    Human mortality
    Patriotism (nationalism, ethnocentrism, etc.)
    etc.

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    coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    Legal Scholarship & the Purpose(s) of the Law of Evidence

    It has been said (in effect) that the law of evidence is shaped by a congeries of interests.

    That's a half truth.

    It has also been said that the purpose of the law of evidence is to promote the search for the truth about facts.

    The truth-value of this proposition is much less -- perhaps, say, 1/20th.

    The American legal realists (including John Henry Wigmore) recognized (and argued) that all branches of law (including the law of evidence) serve a variety of interests and purposes. Hence, evidence scholars with a "realist" cast of mind acknowledged and argued that the law of evidence is shaped by a variety of factors other than the desire to determine the truth or falsity of propositions about legally-material factual hypotheses.

    But the characterization of evidence law's non-epistemic purposes as "interests" stultifies thought and analysis.

    The "interests" that shape the law of evidence may have their own logic or structure. One may have to understand the structure of each such interest or purpose if one is to understand the workings of the law of evidence in a given society at a particular point in history.

    It is true that the law's purposes -- including the purposes of the law of evidence -- cannot be pulled out of heaven; different societies have different characteristics, interests, and purposes. But these historically-contingent purposes, or "interests" -- which in many or most societies do include a yearning for "truth" -- do have a structure. For example, "confrontation" (in adversary legal proceedings) may be an "interest" but it very probably has a certain connotation in the minds (and hearts) of some people in a society such as ours, and it may be possible to get a sense of what such an "interest," or value, means. Similarly, with notions such as "closure," "dignity," and the like.

    A coherent effort to construct a systematic exposition of historically-contingent proof regimes should probably attempt to (i) identify the congeries of "interests," purposes, and values (and also non-historically-contingent constraints or variables) that shape or might the law of evidence at a particular point in space and time, (ii) put those interests, values, and variables into something resembling a matrix, and (iii) then -- to mix mathematical analogies -- describe how such interests, etc., interact to produce the vector that is the law of evidence in a particular society at a given point in history.

    It would be extraordinarily difficult, of course, to provide such a systematic description of the law of evidence. But such a description is the one to which systematic scholarship ("theoretical scholarship") about the law of evidence should probably aspire.

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    Friday, February 13, 2009

    How Distinctive Must a Modus Operandi Be to Serve as a "Signature"?

    How distinctive does the manner of the commission of a crime have to be if that crime is to serve as a quasi-signature that tends to identify the perpetrator of that crime as the perpetrator of another crime committed in the same or similar manner? Cases and commentators once hinted the that m.o. used in the crime used as evidence of identity had to be unique, like a handwritten signature or a fingerprint, things that, some people (mistakenly) think, are unique identifiers. But today the law knows better: it knows that methods of committing crimes are not unique identifiers; today the law of evidence "knows" that methods of committing crimes can have at most only a tendency to show who the perpetrator of another crime was and the law now knows that an m.o. cannot be conclusive proof of a perpetrator's identity. But then the question is, "Well, just how unusual or distinctive must a modus operandi be if it is to be distinctive enough to allow "other bad act or crime" evidence to be admitted to show identity and to thus avoid falling afoul of the prohibition against the use of other crimes to show the commission of the crime charged?" The facts of some cases suggest that the answer increasingly is: not terribly different, the crime used as evidence of the identity of the perpetrator of the crime for which accused is on trial doesn't have to have been committed a very unusual way. See, e.g., United States v. Sappe, 898 F.2d 878, 879 (2d Cir. 1990), with my thanks again to Joannes Untalan Vinarao-Pilapil for finding this case.

    There is a logic at work here: the logic of so-called logical relevance, which treats evidence as relevant if it has the slightest amount of probative value, if it has any tendency to increase or decrease the probability of a legally-material fact. See Federal Rule of Evidence 401. The same logic is corroding the doctrine of chances and the habit rule. In the case of the doctrine of chances, it is not apparent why more than just other other prior "accidental" bathtub drowning or more just one other supposed SIDS death is necessary to make the other drowning or the other infant death admissible in, respectively, a prosecution of accused for deliberately drowning his or her spouse or a father or mother for deliberately smothering an infant. And in the case of habit, it is hard to explain, under this logic (the logic of "logical relevance"), why a pattern of behavior must be invariable or almost invariable if the that pattern of behavior is to constitute habit legally speaking and thus avoid the prohibition against the use of character to show conduct.

    It is this same sort of logic, I think, that drove the Supreme Court of the United States to hold that "clear and convincing" evidence of the commission of another crime is not necessary if another crime is to be used for a "nonpropensity purpose" such as "knowledge" or "absence of mistake" and that evidence "sufficient to support a finding" of the commission of the other crime is sufficient for admissibility of other crime evidence in federal trials. See Huddleston v. United States, 485 U.S. 681 (1988). The problem with this tendency (if you think it is a problem) is that if continued, it leads to the annihilation of all rules of evidence whose reason for being rests on their capacity to increase the accuracy of inference because of the accuracy of the generalizations those rules harbor about nature and humanity.

    When I think about such questions, I tend to think that the fundamental questions about the reason for the existence of many rules of evidence have barely been posed, let alone answered.

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    coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    A Court's Thoughts about an "Old Chestnut": Poverty as Evidence of Motive for Act such as Crime

    United States v. Mitchell, 172 F.3d 1104, 1107-1110 (9th Cir. 1999) (trial for armed bank robbery):

    Mitchell argues that evidence of a defendant's poverty is not admissible to show motive, citing an evidence treatise by Wigmore and several cases from other circuits such as Davis v. United States, 133 U.S. App. D.C. 167, 409 F.2d 453, 457-58 (D.C. Cir. 1969), United States v. Reed, 700 F.2d 638, 642-43 (11th Cir. 1983), and United States v. Zipkin, 729 F.2d 384, 390 (6th Cir. 1984). The government argues that evidence of financial condition is admissible to show motive under United States v. Feldman, 788 F.2d 544, 556-57 (9th Cir. 1986), United States v. Jackson, 882 F.2d 1444, 1449-50 (9th Cir. 1989), and United States v. Miranda, 986 F.2d 1283, 1285 (9th Cir. 1993). In her argument heading, the prosecutor also says the evidence was properly admitted under Federal Rule of Evidence 404(b). She notes that the jury was given a limiting instruction regarding use of the evidence.

    &&&

    The government's characterization of the evidence as admissible under Federal Rule of Evidence 404(b) to show motive is meritless.

    &&&

    The issue on evidence of poverty is whether it has any relevance, that is, "any tendency to make the existence of any fact that is of consequence to the determination of the action more probable or less probable than it would be without the evidence." Fed. R. Evid. 401. Of course, relevant evidence may be excluded in the discretion of the trial judge "if its probative value is substantially outweighed by the danger of unfair prejudice." Fed. R. Evid. 403. The issue is whether the trial judge was within his discretion in admitting the evidence in this case under these two rules, not Rule 404(b).

    The issue of evidence of poverty is something of an old chestnut in the law of evidence, so we do not write on a blank slate. Wigmore expresses the traditional suspicion of admitting evidence of impecuniousness:

    The lack of money by A might be relevant enough to show the probability of A's desiring to commit a crime in order to obtain money. But the practical result of such a doctrine would be to put a poor person under so much unfair suspicion and at such a relative disadvantage that for reasons of fairness this argument has seldom been countenanced as evidence of the graver crimes, particularly those of violence.
    II Wigmore, Evidence Section 392 ([Chadbourn] rev. 1979). The cases Mitchell cites from other circuits do, as he says, stand for the traditional view that evidence of poverty is not admissible to show motive, because it is of slight probative value and would be unfairly prejudicial to poor people charged with crimes.

    Of our cases, two are relevant (the third cited by the government, United States v. Miranda, 986 F.2d 1283, 1285 (9th Cir. 1993), is not, because we discussed the issue as "evidence of a drug habit," not evidence of financial need). In United States v. Feldman, 788 F.2d 544 (9th Cir. 1986), we found no abuse of discretion in a bank robbery trial, where the court had admitted evidence that the defendant's joint account with his father was overdrawn by more than $ 8,000, and the father had told the bank that his signature was forged on the checks creating the overdraft. We said that the evidence that Feldman owed "substantial sums" was relevant to show motive, quoting another case that said "evidence that tends to show that a defendant is living beyond his means is of probative value in a case involving a crime resulting in financial gain." Id. at 557 (quoting United States v. Saniti, 604 F.2d 603, 604 (9th Cir. 1979)).

    Likewise, in United States v. Jackson, 882 F.2d 1444, 1449 (9th Cir. 1989), we held that evidence was properly admitted that the defendant was "short on funds," "having financial difficulty," and borrowed money because he "couldn't pay for things he needed to have done." Id. We reviewed the traditional "resistance to linking poverty with motivations to commit crimes." Id. We noted that where evidence of impecuniosity properly came into evidence, there was "more than the mere fact that the defendant is poor." Id. We also noted that in the case quoted by Feldman for the "living beyond his means" language, the defendant had a $ 250 per day heroin habit. The reason we resolved Jackson in favor of admissibility was "an unexplained and abrupt change in that status for the better." Id. at 1450. A witness had testified that he was surprised when the defendant paid $ 100 for a post office box "because he never had any money." Id.

    To determine whether evidence of impecuniousness has relevance, and that its probative value is not outweighed by the risk of unfair prejudice, it is necessary to consider the facts of the particular case. No general proposition can properly resolve all cases, because the multiplicity of circumstances in human conduct is too great. If a man is notoriously broke and cannot buy a pack of cigarettes Tuesday, that night a laundromat is burglarized, and on Wednesday the man buys a carton of cigarettes and a $ 40 bottle of scotch, all with quarters, the man's financial circumstances have obvious and significant probative value.

    Poverty as proof of motive has in many cases little tendency to make theft more probable. Lack of money gives a person an interest in having more. But so does desire for money, without poverty. A rich man's greed is as much a motive to steal as a poor man's poverty. Proof of either, without more, is likely to amount to a great deal of unfair prejudice with little probative value.

    There is a distinction between an interest, in the sense that it is in anyone's interest to be richer rather than poorer, and an inclination. A mere interest, unconnected with inclination, desperation, or other evidence that the person was likely to commit the crime does not add much, in most cases, to the probability that the defendant committed a crime. If people commonly committed crimes whenever they needed money and could get it by crime, no company would sell life insurance. There is usually a moral disinclination and an interest in avoiding punishment that restrains people from committing crimes out of mere financial interest. The problem with poverty evidence without more to show motive is not just that it is unfair to poor people, as Wigmore says, but that it does not prove much, because almost everyone, poor or not, has a motive to get more money. And most people, rich or poor, do not steal to get it.

    The reason the financial circumstances evidence could come in in Jackson was abrupt change of circumstances. We required "more than the mere fact that the defendant is poor," such as "an unexplained and abrupt change in that status for the better." Jackson, 882 F.2d at 1449, 1450. An unexplained abrupt change of circumstances is not merely proof of motive, but also amounts to circumstantial evidence of the crime. In the laundromat hypothetical, that the man who was broke yesterday has a couple of hundred quarters today tends to show that the man actually did burglarize someplace that kept its money in quarters, not merely that he had a financial interest in doing so. In Jackson, that the man had no money before, and suddenly had an unexplained $ 100 to pay for something he could not ordinarily afford, tended to show that he had stolen the $ 100, not just that he had a financial interest in having $ 100 more than he did before the theft.

    Likewise in Feldman, the size of the $ 8,000 overdraft and the defendant's father's complaints to the bank that his signature had been forged tended to prove that Feldman had a desperate need to cover the overdraft, not just that he would be better off if he were a few thousand dollars richer. Feldman was squeezed, not just poor. Likewise in the dope addict cases, such as Miranda, the addiction establishes a likelihood of desperate need and lack of self control, not just financial interest in being richer.

    In this case, the evidence did not show "more than the mere fact that the defendant is poor." Jackson, 882 F.2d at 1449. The prosecutor implied in her closing argument that paying the rent in cash August 4, the day after the robbery showed an abrupt change of circumstances, but the evidence did not support that. Mitchell was as overdrawn when he paid the rent in cash July 5 or 6, as he was in August. Because Mitchell was chronically overdrawn, before and after the robbery, whether he had cash or not, his overdraft did not show lack of money to pay the rent. Nor did the evidence establish desperation. There is no reason why a man who has maintained an empty, overdrawn checking account would suddenly need to rob one bank to cover his small overdraft at another. Unlike Feldman, neither the size of the overdraft nor the defendant's father's conduct put any pressure on Mitchell to rob a bank to cover it. Nor did the evidence establish desperation to keep a roof over his family's head. Mitchell's family stayed in the apartment to the end of October, even though he did not pay the rent in September or October, and Mitchell's father said and had demonstrated readiness to help Mitchell out financially as necessary. The cash rent payment was not circumstantial evidence of the robbery, because no marked bills were proved, the day he paid was when the rent was due, and Mitchell always paid in cash pursuant to his landlord's requirement.

    There is a distinction that cuts in favor of Mitchell between the unexplained ability to pay $ 100 for a post office box in Jackson and the unexplained ability to pay $ 885 rent in the case at bar, even though the amount of money cuts against him. In Jackson, a witness testified that "he was surprised" when Jackson paid the $ 100 "because he never had any money." Jackson, 882 F.2d at 1450. But it was no surprise when Mitchell paid the $ 885 in cash. That was the day his rent was due. He had paid it in cash before. The landlord required payment in cash. He had previously paid his landlord even though he was overdrawn at the bank and did not have earnings to cover the payment. Perhaps he was in the habit of keeping his cash out of the bank when the bank might use it to cover his overdraft and overdraft charges. We explained why the defendant's finances could come into evidence in Jackson by saying that the evidence showed "an unexplained and abrupt change in that status for the better." Id. It was the "abrupt change" that made Jackson more like the person with all the quarters in the laundromat hypothetical. In this case there was no such abrupt change.

    The poverty evidence was not only of negligible probative value, but also produced a high "danger of unfair prejudice." Fed. R. Evid. 403. The prosecutor did not merely show that Mitchell would be better off if he had a few thousand dollars more. She effectively portrayed him as a feckless man who did not support his wife and children. She showed with the poverty evidence that Mitchell let his wife draw welfare while he went to the basketball court, lived on his parents' bounty at an age where most people do not, and let his family get evicted from their apartment. Jurors' feelings about a man who lives that way have no legitimate bearing on whether he should be convicted of robbing a bank. That a person is feckless and poor, or greedy and rich, without more, has little tendency to establish that the person committed a crime to get more money, and its probative value is substantially outweighed by the danger of unfair prejudice. The district court's discretion was not broad enough to allow admission of the evidence of Mitchell's impecunious financial circumstances.

    END OF OPINION

    This question -- poverty as evidence of motive for conduct -- and issues like it will be discussed on the forthcoming "evidence module" on Spindle Law. See link below. (But be patient: the evidence module is not yet public - alas.)

    the dynamic evidence page

    coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law