Friday, May 01, 2009

MarshalPlan 2.5

How many lives does a cat have?

I have tweaked MarshalPlan once again. There is now a better chance than ever that the user will not get stuck in a "stack" with no way to navigate through the stack. (But now and then you will still have to utter an expletive and just exit the stack. You have my sympathy in advance, and I, I trust, your forgiveness [in advance].)

Oh yes: I am indeed talking about my evidence marshaling software.

Below is some general information about MarshalPlan and instructions for downloading the software.

&&&

Years ago David Schum and I developed the notion of an evidence marshaling system. We laid out the underlying theory of this evidence marshaling system in A Theory of Preliminary Fact Investigation. We developed a kind of computer embodiment, or computer-based expression, of our idea of an evidence marshaling system. Eventually we decided to call our system "MarshalPlan".

More than one year ago I released MarshalPlan 2.2. This moniker -- MarshalPlan 2.2 (now 2.5) -- amounts to a bit of self-mockery: MarshalPlan 2.x is not a prototype of a working application suitable for "real-time" use. Far from it! However, MarshalPlan 2.2, 2.3, 2.4, and 2.5 are more than mere scratchings on a page that state in words (text) how a MarshalPlan application might work.

MarshalPlan 2.5 is a software application based on the user-friendly programming language Revolution Enterprise(tm). This application -- MarshalPlan 2.5 -- illustrates -- with images, fields, buttons (links), and so on -- how a computer program to support the marshaling and assessment of evidence in preparation for possible trials and also for the conduct of trials, might work.

&&&

To retrieve MarshalPlan 2.5 click on this link. Download all of the Revolution stacks into a single folder on your computer. These stacks all have the suffix "rev". To make these stacks run properly you need a "Revolution Player." To get this free player go here and download the version of the player (either Windows or Mac OSX) that you need. Then drag-drop the "network.rev" icon onto the "Revolution Player" icon or open the Revolution Player icon and then open the Network.rev stack, or file. You should be in business now: the buttons, or links, in the various stacks should allow you to navigate between the stacks as well as within the stacks. (However, it is possible you will have to drag-drop all of the stacks onto the Revolution Player icon if you wish to navigate between the stacks. Please let me know if this turns out to be the case.)

  • Alternatively, if your computer uses Windows, go to this link and download and run this standalone program.

  • If your computer has a different operating system (e.g., Linux or one of the Macintosh/Apple operating systems) go to this link, open the appropriate folder, and download and run the file "Network".
  • &&&

    SOME VERY IMPORTANT CAVEATS: There are numerous very serious flaws in the software application that you will retrieve by clicking on the links found above, and the application that you will retrieve has numerous gaps and limitations, including the following:

    1. In the application itself there is very little explanation of the theory underlying the evidence marshaling strategies that are embedded in MarshalPlan 2.5.
    To get that some of that theory and those explanations (but not all of it) you will have to (i) read the article I mentioned earlier, A Theory of Preliminary Fact Investigation, and (ii) wander about my personal web site. If you want a truly comprehensive theory-laden explanation of MarshalPlan, you will have to invite me to give a leisurely talk (preferably on a tropical island or some other attractive venue).
    2. Some buttons and links don't work. When that happens, try other buttons and links. (Otherwise resort to expletives. You have my permission.)

    3. Some important stacks are entirely missing. E.g., the "Narratives" stack. The most important missing stacks are those having to do with the development of evidential argument from evidence to factual propositions and with the assessment of the probative value of the evidence. For a discussion of the methods that might be used for this purpose, see Special Issue on Graphic and Visual Representations of Evidence and Inference in Legal Settings, 6 Law, Probability and Risk Nos. 1-4 (Oxford University Press, 2007).

    4. MarshalPlan 2.5 is not set up to be linked to a database. This is a most serious deficiency.

    But -- in my defense -- I repeat: MarshalPlan 2.5 is NOT a prototype of a working software application, suitable for use in real-time contexts.

    MarshalPlan is, instead, an elaborate visual illustration of some of the directions that development of software for marshaling evidence in legal settings should take.

    &&&

    The dynamic evidence page

    Coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    Tuesday, April 28, 2009

    An Indirect Comment on the Cognitive Capacities of Jurors?

    Adele Conover, "To Fathom a Colony’s Talk and Toil, Studying Insects One by One," NY Times (April 28, 2009):

    "'It’s fascinating that many cognitive functions — learning, planning, using tools — can be solved by brains several orders of magnitude smaller than ours,' Dr. [Anna] Dornhaus said. 'It shows that we should never underestimate an animal because it is small.'"

    &&&

    The dynamic evidence page

    Coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    Saturday, April 25, 2009

    Release of MarshalPlan 2.4 -- A System for Marshaling Evidence in Legal Settings

    I have further tweaked the "stacks" (files) in my evidence marshaling software MarshalPlan: I have added brief spoken explanations about the purposes of some of the stacks.

    I call my slightly-revised software MarshalPlan 2.4 (as opposed to MarshalPlan 2.3).

    Below find general information about MarshalPlan and instructions for downloading the software.

    &&&

    Years ago David Schum and I developed the notion of an evidence marshaling system. We laid out the underlying theory of this evidence marshaling system in A Theory of Preliminary Fact Investigation. We developed a kind of computer embodiment, or computer-based expression, of our idea of an evidence marshaling system. Eventually we decided to call our system "MarshalPlan".

    More than one year ago I released MarshalPlan 2.2. This moniker -- MarshalPlan 2.2 (now 2.4) -- amounts to a bit of self-mockery: MarshalPlan 2.x is not a prototype of a working application suitable for "real-time" use. Far from it! However, MarshalPlan 2.2, 2.3, and 2.4 are more than mere scratchings on a page that state in words (text) how a MarshalPlan application might work.

    MarshalPlan 2.4 is a software application based on the user-friendly programming language Revolution Enterprise(tm). This application -- MarshalPlan 2.4 -- illustrates -- with images, fields, buttons (links), and so on -- how a computer program to support the marshaling and assessment of evidence in preparation for possible trials and also for the conduct of trials, might work.

    &&&

    To retrieve MarshalPlan 2.4 click on this link. Download all of the Revolution stacks into a single folder on your computer. These stacks all have the suffix "rev". To make these stacks run properly you need a "Revolution Player." To get this free player go here and download the version of the player (either Windows or Mac OSX) that you need. Then drag-drop the "Network.rev" icon onto the "Revolution Player" icon or open the Revolution Player icon and then open the Network.rev stack, or file. You should be in business now: the buttons, or links, in the various stacks should allow you to navigate between the stacks as well as within the stacks. (However, it is possible you will have to drag-drop all of the stacks onto the Revolution Player icon if you wish to navigate between the stacks. Please let me know if this turns out to be the case.)

    &&&

    SOME VERY IMPORTANT CAVEATS: There are numerous very serious flaws in the software application that you will retrieve by clicking on the links found above, and the application that you will retrieve has numerous gaps and limitations, including the following:

    1. In the application itself there is very little explanation of the theory underlying the evidence marshaling strategies that are embedded in MarshalPlan 2.4.
    To get that theory and those explanations you will have to (i) read the article I mentioned earlier, A Theory of Preliminary Fact Investigation, and (ii) wander about my personal web site. If you want a comprehensive theory-laden explanation of MarshalPlan, you will have to invite me to give a leisurely talk (preferably on a tropical island or some other attractive venue).
    2. Some buttons and links don't work. When that happens, try other buttons and links.

    3. Some important stacks are entirely missing. E.g., the "Narratives" stack. The most important missing stacks are those having to do with the development of evidential argument from evidence to factual propositions and with the assessment of the probative value of the evidence. For a discussion of the methods that might be used for this purpose, see Special Issue on Graphic and Visual Representations of Evidence and Inference in Legal Settings, 6 Law, Probability and Risk Nos. 1-4 (Oxford University Press, 2007).

    4. MarshalPlan 2.4 is not set up to be linked to a database. This is a most serious deficiency.

    But -- in my defense -- I repeat: MarshalPlan 2.4 is NOT a prototype of a working software application, suitable for use in real-time contexts.

    MarshalPlan is, instead, an elaborate visual illustration of some of the directions that development of software for marshaling evidence in legal settings should take.

    &&&

    The dynamic evidence page

    Coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    Friday, April 24, 2009

    Visual Aids & Visual Sketches during Closing Argument

    Question 1: How often do trial lawyers, during closing argument, use visual aids -- diagrams, charts, models, digital images, and the like -- that were not admitted into evidence during the submission of evidence at trial?

    Question 2: How often do trial lawyers, again during closing argument, use sketches or other visual aids to depict their arguments about the evidence in the case?

    If anyone out there has any anecdotes or other information, I would very much like to hear from you.

    &&&

    The dynamic evidence page

    Coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    Thursday, April 23, 2009

    Kudos to International Commentary on Evidence on Its 10th Anniversary -- and Kudos to Its Editors, Craig Callen, Sean Doran & John Jackson

    A new special issue has just been published in International Commentary on Evidence

    The special issue celebrates the 10th Anniversary of ICE by featuring a number of essays on important evidentiary developments from a comparative perspective in the period since ICE was established. The Table of Contents and brief descriptions of the articles are below.

    Readers can access all the articles at no charge.

    International Commentary on Evidence

    Introduction
    • Founding editors Craig R. Callen, Sean Doran, and John D. Jackson reflect briefly upon the establishment of ICE and how it has developed in the previous ten years. "Evidence during the Ten Years of ICE"

    Articles

    • Erica Beecher-Monas of Wayne State University discusses the increasingly antithetical approach to expert testimony by courts, and how this is imposing unacceptable costs on the entire justice system. "Paradoxical Validity Determinations: A Decade of Antithetical Approaches to Admissibility of Expert Evidence

    • Andrew Roberts of University of Warwick provides a critical analysis of some of the more notable procedural developments relating to eyewitness identification evidence over the past decade. "Eyewitness Identification Evidence: Procedural Developments and the Ends of Adjudicative Accuracy"

    • Pamela J. Schwikkard of University of Cape Town looks at the status and application of the right to remain silent in a number of common law jurisdictions, favoring the rationale that this right assists in preventing the abuse of public power. “The Muddle of Silence

    • Roger W. Kirst of University of Nebraska College of Law describes how confrontation doctrine was changed in the last decade by Crawford and the Court's subsequent decisions in Davis v. Washington and Giles v. California. He goes on to discuss other confrontation issues the Supreme Court will face in future cases. “A Decade of Change in Sixth Amendment Confrontation Doctrine

    • Myrna S. Raeder of Southwestern Law School reviews the history of advocacy on behalf of adult and child female victims of rape and other sexual assaults, focusing on both long term and short term trends. “Litigating Sex Crimes in the United States: Has the Last Decade Made Any Difference?

    • Johannes F. Nijboer of University of Leiden discusses three dimensions of generality in evidence and procedure. He examines the trend across disciplines and professions, national boundaries, and with respect to specific crimes. “Current Issues in Evidence and Procedure - Comparative Comments from a Continental Perspective

    &&&

    PT: In this blog I have occasionally sermonized about the importance of imaginative and entrepreneurial legal scholarship. International Commentary on Evidence is a perfect example of what I have in mind.

    &&&

    The dynamic evidence page

    Coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    Tuesday, April 21, 2009

    Additional Scattered Thoughts on "Inbred" Inference, Tacit Inference, Explicit Inference, and One or Two Possibly-Related Matters

    Some knowledge is tacit. But that does not mean all tacit knowledge is inborn, inherited. Some tacit knowledge is surely learned. But all learned knowledge (including learned tacit knowledge) may depend, not only on the lessons of experience (and, sometimes, on self-conscious efforts at learning), but also on some inborn tacit knowledge, some inbred and inherited brain wiring; i.e., perhaps the acquisition of knowledge cannot begin ex nihilo. [But this last supposition creates an infinite regress problem, no?].

    Some knowledge involves explicit knowledge. But it does not necessarily follow that a given body of developed explicit knowledge (even esoteric explicit knowledge -- e.g., mathematically-formulated knowledge about the world) altogether avoids reliance on tacit knowledge. For example, perhaps the predictions of a physicist, some other learned person, or artillery officer about the trajectory of a projectile fired from a cannon ordinarily depend on a certain amount (perhaps a large amount) of tacit knowledge as well as on explicit calculations involving Newtonian mechanics, friction coefficients, and other such matters. (But it is possible -- is it possible? -- that some explicit human knowledge can be fully automated by being deposited into an autonomous non-human device -- i.e., that such knowledge may take the form of a fully autonomous robot whose intended operations never require or depend on human intervention.)

    Can expressly-formulated principles improve the inferential performance of a device -- be that device mechanical or biological -- whose inferential processes are imperfectly, only partially, understood?

  • Consider recipes for batters in baseball games. Can expressly-formulated recipes, maxims, or precepts for batters "work"? (Plainly such recipes -- "Keep your eye on the ball!", "Watch the pitcher's grip!", etc. -- do not fully capture or express the way a batter's brain, eyes, etc., work to lead the batter to draw certain inferences -- very quickly! -- about the velocity and trajectory of the ball that he or she hopes to hit out of the ballpark.)

  • Consider, alternatively, rules built into thermostats -- e.g., "Thermostat, turn on switch X when sensor B shows t-1 or less; but turn on switch Y when sensor B shows t +1 or more." Can such a rule work if the physical processes by which the thermostat's sensors detect signals are not perfectly understood? (The answer would seem to be "yes." What are the implications of that?!)
  • I realize my ruminations here are primitive, probably even sophomoric. So forgive me for that. I am taking the liberty of doing some exploratory thinking "out loud." Later (probably only much later) I will make an effort to be more systematic.

    N.B. The scholarship of Nancy Cartwright and the fuzzy logic-based science of Lotfi Zadeh have an important bearing, I think, on the questions I am raising here. And so does, of course, the vast body of learning now being produced by that vast army of scholars who are carefully studying the neurobiological, neurochemical, neuroelectrical [and neuromagnetic?] computational processes of the human animal. The next generation will be much better equipped than this one to tackle some of the epistemological and inferential puzzles that have bedeviled logicians, philosophers, epistemologists, psychologists, and legal scholars for many, many years.

    A further N.B.: I have been talking here, once again, about the phenomenon and puzzle of partial knowledge. I also think I have also been viewing -- have I not? -- the human creature as an organism. These ways of thinking about the human situation have implications for attempts at conscious regulation of inference.

    &&&

    The dynamic evidence page

    Coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    Brief Reflections on Association, Causation, and Inference

    In 1988 Professor Richard Wright published an important article: Richard W. Wright, "Causation, Responsibility, Risk, Probability, Naked Statistics, and Proof: Pruning the Bramble Bush by Clarifying the Concepts," 73 Iowa Law Review 1001 (1988). See also Richard W. Wright, "Once More into the Bramble Bush: Duty, Causal Contribution, and the Extent of Legal Responsibility," 54 Vanderbilt Law Review 1071 (2001). Although the prose in Wright's 1988 article was dense and difficult, one of Wright's general ideas was clear, interesting, and important: There is no valid statistical inference without causal reasoning. In recent decades this position has also been taken by the prominent computer science theorist Judea Pearl. See, e.g., Judea Pearl, The Art and Science of Cause and Effect (lecture [with slides], October 29, 1996).

    If one has a certain ontology -- that is, if one entertains certain basic beliefs about the underlying structure of the world -- there is something irresistible about the idea of a necessary link between causality and inference. However, the demand for a link between inference and causality can also have a paralyzing effect -- because more often than not the knowledge that human beings have of causes is imperfect and often that sort of knowledge seems destined to remain imperfect.

    Yet, it seems hard to resist the conclusion that without some tenable theory of the way one or more things are connected to another thing or things, no probative or inferential weight can be given to any observed associations of events in the world (and that this is so whether or not statistical language and concepts are used to describe those associations).

    So how are we (theorists of evidence and inference) to wrestle our way out of this conundrum? I am not sure. But my strong guess is that we have to focus on the notion of what used to be called tacit knowledge, on subconscious perceptual and cognitive processes. The general idea is this: Our brains know more than we do. That is to say: Human knowledge does not consist only of conscious knowledge, or knowledge that human beings have been able to express explicitly.

    It must or might be the case, I think, that the brain (i.e., the human neurobiological system) somehow comes to have embedded within it some pretty good working hypotheses about the causal structure of (some parts of) the world and that when the human organism observes certain patterns of events, these embedded tacit hypotheses are brought into play and channel (or influence) the conscious judgments that human beings make about whether some pattern of events or association of events does or does not "validly" matter to the inferences human beings should draw, or can "validly" ("logically") draw, on the basis of their observations of events in the world.

    That's the general direction in which my thinking is moving. However, if that's the way inference generally works, numerous puzzles remain. One of the biggest ones is what role conscious reasoning can play if much or most of human knowledge is "tacit," literally subconscious. Another problem (related to the first) is to explain how some human beings have managed to make darned good predictions in some domains by deploying complex conceptual constructs and operations (e.g., quantum theory, calculus, and the like), explicit constructs and operations that did not come into those human beings' brains with their mothers' milk (or milk bottles).

    &&&

    The dynamic evidence page

    Coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    Saturday, April 18, 2009

    fMRI No Lie Is No Go in Southern California Case

    The Stanford Center for Law & the Biosciences Blog reports (March 25, 2009) that fMRI No Lie's request to introduce brain scan evidence to show a client's non-lying has been withdrawn.

    Good. It is good that this bogus lie detection method won't see the inside of a courtroom for the time being. See my earlier comments and questions about fMRI lie detection here and here.

    Brain research is good. The ability of a scientifically-outlandish use of brain research to command widespread public attention is not good.

    But in this instance at least both intelligence and common sense overcame faddishness and gee-whiz popular science. Will Homeland Security exhibit similar caution, intelligence, and common sense in the use of such pseudo-scientific lie detection methods? Given the widespread use of the polygraph in the halls of government, there is reason to wonder.

    &&&

    The dynamic evidence page

    Coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    Wednesday, April 15, 2009

    The Law and Principles of Evidence in Cyberspace

    Work continues apace on Spindle Law's evidence module. The worker bees on the evidence module are, at present, Peter Tillers and Joannes Vinarao-Pilapil.
    In the event you forgot: The "evidence module" is akin, in varying degrees, to the following:

  • a mini-treatise on the law of evidence (mainly the U.S. federal law of evidence)
  • a taxonomy of the law of evidence
  • an outline of the law of evidence
  • a budding intelligent data base about the law of evidence
  • a platform for collaborative development -- via the astonishing thing called the internet -- of an intelligent (and free) storehouse of knowledge, analysis, and argument about the law of evidence.
    Of all of the above categories, the last probably best captures the spirit of the evidence module. (But in time -- as the evidence module grows -- the evidence module should become wider and deeper in certain respects than any existing treatise on the law of evidence.)
  • Joannes and I have been diligently working on various parts of the evidence module, including those parts relating to proof procedure, relevance, undue prejudice, hearsay, impeachment, and privileges. But much remains to be done.

    Our work on the propensity rule (including "other crimes evidence"), evidence of habit and routine practice, and related matters is most nearly ready for a public beta release. The Spindle Law web site has recently been upgraded. Before releasing this part of the module, we and David Gold and his colleagues need to work out some issues about matters such as the handling of (i) exceptions to rules and (ii) case parentheticals and case summaries. In addition, Joannes and I want to be sure there is enough commentary in the initial beta material to whet the appetite of those of you out there -- those creative souls in the legal community -- who might enjoy taking part in public discussion, debate, and development of a storehouse of professionally-informed knowledge about the law of evidence in the United States.

    I am excited by this experiment with an evidence module, an experiment made possible by Spindle Law. While the evidence module may not cure the world's ills -- or even the ills of the legal system --, I think it may, in a small way, contribute to the welfare of our society and to knowledge of an important part of the American legal system. Less grandiosely, I hope and I believe that the evidence module will be useful to "legal professionals" such as judges, lawyers, law students, and law professors.

    So stay tuned. I will be asking for your thoughts, your advice, and your contributions. And please note: Should you want that to happen, your name will be attached to your contributions (however large or small) to the evidence module, and thus -- should you wish to accept it -- you have a chance to gain more than just a paltry 15 minutes of fame.







    Saturday, April 11, 2009

    Partial Knowledge of Boxes with Partial Self-Knowledge

    Imagine a box.

    The box sometimes hoists an umbrella. Sometimes it does not.

    I wonder: Can I use the box's umbrella hoist to determine whether it is raining? (I am too lazy to go outside and put my finger in the air.) So I interrogate the box (an intelligent box):

    Q. Box, when do you hoist an umbrella?
    A. When it rains.
    Q. How do you determine if it is raining?
    A. When I hear raindrops splatter.
    Q. How do you tell the difference between raindrop-splatters and other sounds?
    A. I'm not sure. But there are some signs I think I use -- for example, the sounds come frequently but not with invariable regularity, they create an echoing or pinging sound within me (I'm made out of metal), that sort of thing. I'm not sure I can tell you all the clues I use. But I'm sure I can distinguish rain-drop sounds from other sounds. Why do you ask?
    Q. Oh, I'm just curious. Do you hoist an umbrella when it is not raining?
    A. No, not usually. Why would I?
    Q. Thank you, Box.
    A. You're most welcome.
    Later, looking down from the fourth floor of a building, I cannot see if it is raining but I see Mr. Box hoist an umbrella. I notice some people nearby also have hoisted their umbrellas. But I notice that some people are carrying umbrellas but have not opened or raised them. I wonder to myself: Is it raining?

    I decide to focus on the behavior of Mr. Box. I decide, first, that it was trying to be truthful when it told me what leads it to hoist an umbrella. (So, to that extent, I think I can see inside the unusually-articulate and -intelligent box.) N.B. I need to keep in mind that Box might have bad sound sensors. But I decide to ignore this complication for now.

    I recall that Box itself said it could not list all of the factors (sounds) that lead it to conclude that it is raining. So Box itself, if it is being honest, cannot clearly identify the factors that make it think (about rain or not-rain) what it thinks and do (hoist or not-hoist) what it does. But I think: with some effort perhaps both the box and I could imagine the factors that influence the box's decision or belief about whether it is raining.)

    I then think: "Mr. Box was trying to be truthful. But is it possible Box uses clues and signals other than sound to determine whether it it is raining? Yes, I think that's possible, even unbeknownst to Box. For example, perhaps umbrella-hoisting by people influences what Box thinks about rain or not-rain. Or perhaps, unbeknownst to Box, it senses increases in moisture levels in the air." However, I caution myself: "It does not necessarily follow, of course, that Box's beliefs are uninfluenced by the clues it listed."

    &&&

    This box metaphor or parable (as ungainly as it is) highlights some factors that may have to be taken into account when we attempt to assess the accuracy of the reports of, say, people who claim they are "bite-mark experts" or, say, "fingerprint identification experts" or, say, "polygraph experts." (One interesting potential lesson is that even bogus experts who may nevertheless be good detectors [of, e.g., rain or not-rain] may be influenced by their bogus methods even if those bogus experts have little self-understanding, little understanding, that is, of what leads them to reach the conclusions and make the reports that they do. [Consider, for example, a polygraph expert who has good hunches about the people she tests with her fancy-looking polygraph equipment.])

    But my ungainly parable also has a very broad moral: the possible omnipresence of genuine but partial knowledge and the frightening difficulties (both practical and theoretical) this sort of knowledge presents.

    One illustration of partial but genuine knowledge: without knowing everything about the box but by having or making some pretty good explicit or tacit guesses about the workings of the box, I may be able to make pretty good guesses about rain or not-rain if I see the box hoist an umbrella. Of course, it is also possible -- particularly if I am dealing with a strange metal box -- that my guesses based on the box's umbrella-hoisting will be almost entirely worthless.

    An important hypothesis: Sometimes we know -- whether tacitly or explicitly -- much but not everything about people who know much or something but not everything about themselves.

    Question: Suppose we have such fragmentary but real knowledge. What steps (if any) can we take to improve it? And what steps (if any) can we take to increase the accuracy of judgments that other people (e.g., jurors) make about the reports of yet other people (e.g., witnesses) about still other people (e.g., a defendant who is, say, related to the witness who professes to be reporting and explaining that defendant's behavior)?

    the dynamic evidence page

    coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    Friday, April 10, 2009

    Boxes That Misunderstand Themselves

    The explanations that some putative experts give for their decisions may not be accurate; i.e., those given reasons may not explain why those putative experts decide as they do (or say what they say). If that is the case, understanding these experts' stated reasons would not allow us to predict the decisions (or inferences) of these supposed experts. However, it does not follow that such putative experts do not follow some rules or principles (that are unknown to them). In short, sometimes we will distrust the explanations that some experts give but we may yet believe that these supposed experts will sometimes be useful barometers (for reasons they themselves do not accurately understand). But to figure out just when these nincompoopish experts will be useful barometers and when they won't, we need to understand what makes them tick -- what really makes them tick. Otherwise we may foolishly say, "Well, these people correctly predicted the last recession. Even if they can't explain what leads them to make the predictions they do, it's a good bet they'll correctly predict the next recession." Well, maybe, and maybe not.

    the dynamic evidence page

    coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    B.F. Skinner's Rats & Pigeons in B.F. Skinner's Mazes

    B.F. Skinner (the famous behaviorist) wasn't interested in the internal mechanisms of the rats and pigeons in his mazes. B.F. Skinner was interested only (he said, as I recall) in the responses of his animals to positive and negative inputs (rewards).

    But B.F. Skinner's animals would not have responded the way they did in the past if someone had snipped the chains of neurons and axons (or whatnot) that transmitted sensory signals from the animals' environments to the innards of the animals that B.F. Skinner (said he) didn't care about.

    So what does this have to do with proficiency testing of experts?

    the dynamic evidence page

    coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    Predicting (Inferring) a Box's Behavior (Outputs, Reports)

    Assume:
    Input: an observation (a signal, a possibly-sensed event).

    Output: a statement.

    Intermediary: a box.

    Question: To predict a box's outputs given specified inputs, do you have to be able to see (or infer) the innards (or workings) of the box or is it sufficient to be able to observe the box's outputs in the past given specified inputs?

    the dynamic evidence page

    coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    There Is No Law against Blue Skies, Is There?

    the dynamic evidence page

    coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    Evidence of Things to Come

    the dynamic evidence page

    coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    Spring: The Slow-Thinking Season

    Legal business, law schools, and analytical thinking all slow during the "spring break," while everyone (here in the Northeast, in any event) impatiently awaits the arrival of warm & sunny weather. (But migratory ducks are already here and are almost gone.)

    Well, in recompense perhaps I'll post something tonight or tomorrow about measuring the proficiency of putative experts. Otherwise I'll post a digital image or two.

    the dynamic evidence page

    coming soon: the law of evidence on Spindle Law

    Sunday, March 29, 2009

    New Jersey Thinks Again about the Polygraph Test

    The Supreme Court of New Jersey recently declined to completely outlaw the admission of polygraph evidence. However, the NJ Supreme Court retained its rule that in the absence of a stipulation, polygraph evidence is inadmissible. In addition, it held that a stipulation without the advice of counsel is ineffective. Finally, it said that the "next time" a party seeks to introduce polygraph evidence pursuant to a stipulation, the trial court must hold a hearing to determine the reliability of polygraph evidence. See State v. A.O., --- N.J. ----, --- A.2d ----, 2009 WL 529149 (N.J.,March 4, 2009). In reaching these conclusions New Jersey's Supreme Court said (footnotes omitted) the following things:

    IV.

    We next consider the enforceability of the stipulation in light of the law regarding polygraph evidence and the facts of this case.

    A.

    As a general rule, polygraph results are not admissible in evidence in New Jersey. State v. Domicz, 188 N.J. 285, 312-13, 907 A.2d 395 (2006); McDavitt, supra, 62 N.J. at 44, 297 A.2d 849; State v. Driver, 38 N.J. 255, 261, 183 A.2d 655 (1962). In 1972, this Court held in McDavitt that "to date ... lie detector testing has not yet attained scientific acceptance as a reliable and accurate means of ascertaining truth or deception." 62 N.J. at 44, 297 A.2d 849. We reaffirmed that view recently and noted that "[i]n the more than thirty years since McDavitt, serious questions about the reliability of polygraph evidence remain." Domicz, supra, 188 N.J. at 313, 907 A.2d 395.

    There remains a "lack of scientific consensus concerning the reliability of polygraph evidence, which in turn is reflected in the disagreement among state and federal courts concerning the admissibility of such evidence." Id. at 312, 907 A.2d 395 (citing United States v. Scheffer, 523 U.S. 303, 309-12, 118 S.Ct. 1261, 1265-66, 140 L.Ed.2d 413, 419-21 (1998) (reviewing scientific studies showing that accuracy of polygraph tests ranges from 50 to more than 90 percent)). Some studies suggest that the accuracy rate is "little better than could be obtained by the toss of a coin." Scheffer, supra, 523 U.S. at 310, 118 S.Ct. at 1265, 140 L.Ed.2d at 419 (citing Iacono & Lykken, The Scientific Status of Research on Polygraph Techniques: The Case Against Polygraph Tests, in 1 Modern Scientific Evidence § 14-5.3).

    Nonetheless, to many citizens who serve on juries, polygraph evidence-- presented by experts and arrayed in scientific language--has an aura of infallibility. That impression "can lead jurors to abandon their duty to assess credibility and guilt" and rely instead on the examiner's expert opinion. Scheffer, supra, 523 U.S. at 314, 118 S.Ct. at 1267, 140 L.Ed.2d at 422. As a result, "the vast majority of states either ban polygraph evidence altogether or do not admit such evidence absent a stipulation between the State and defendant." Domicz, supra, 188 N.J. at 312-13, 907 A.2d 395.

    Twenty eight states bar the admission of polygraph evidence outright. ...; see also People v. Angelo, 88 N.Y.2d 217, 644 N.Y.S.2d 460, 666 N.E.2d 1333, 1335 (1996) (polygraph evidence properly excluded where there continues to be no showing that such evidence is generally accepted as reliable by scientific community).

    Virtually all the other states to consider the issue--eighteen in total--limit the admission of polygraph evidence to cases where both parties stipulate to its use. ...

    Only New Mexico allows the admission of polygraph exam results without stipulation. Lee v. Martinez, 136 N.M. 166, 96 P.3d 291, 306-07 (2004).

    Underscoring the widespread skepticism about the polygraph's reliability, four states--Massachusetts, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Oklahoma--have experimented with allowing the admission of polygraph evidence for a number of years, only to reject the practice and reinstate the traditional rule of inadmissibility. ...

    Our view remains unchanged. This Court has not sanctioned and does not now entertain the admission of polygraph results. Nor does our holding in McDavitt offer support for the admission of the stipulated polygraph results in this case. That holding addressed very different facts, and we once again decline to "'widen the small aperture of ... McDavitt.' " State v. Baskerville, 73 N.J. 230, 236, 374 A.2d 441 (1977) (quoting State v. Cole, 131 N.J.Super. 470, 471, 330 A.2d 594 (App.Div.1974)); see also Domicz, supra, 188 N.J. at 313, 907 A.2d 395 ("[W]e are not prepared to extend McDavitt to unstipulated polygraph examinations, even in a suppression hearing presided over by a judge.").

    McDavitt created a very narrow exception to the rule barring polygraph evidence. In that case, the defendant's conduct before the jury provoked the defensive use of polygraph evidence. During his criminal trial, the defendant testified that, after his arrest, he had offered to take a polygraph test to prove his innocence. McDavitt, supra, 62 N.J. at 41, 297 A.2d 849. The prosecutor objected and was mistakenly overruled. *163 Id. at 41, 43, 297 A.2d 849. With the door thus opened, the prosecutor asked on cross-examination if the defendant would be willing to take a polygraph that day. He was. Id. at 41, 297 A.2d 849. After further discussion outside of the jury's presence, the trial court granted a recess to allow the defendant time to confer with his lawyer. Id. at 42, 297 A.2d 849. Afterward, with the court's approval, the parties stipulated as follows: if the defendant passed the test, the State would not oppose a motion for acquittal; if he failed, the test results would be presented to the jury. Id. at 41-42, 297 A.2d 849.

    Those unusual facts gave rise to the exception the Court framed: polygraph results may be admitted in evidence on agreement of the parties if their stipulation is "clear, unequivocal and complete, freely entered into with full knowledge of the right to refuse the test and the consequences involved in taking it." Id. at 46, 297 A.2d 849. In addition, the examiner must be qualified and the test administered in accordance with established techniques. Ibid.

    McDavitt neither discussed nor sanctioned a polygraph stipulation agreed to by a suspect alone. McDavitt, therefore, does not offer support for the stipulation used in this case.

    B.

    We are troubled by more than the prosecution's misplaced reliance on McDavitt and have concerns about certain matters defendant was asked to stipulate to on his own.

    First, we question defendant's ability to stipulate to the expert's qualifications. Defendant acknowledges in the stipulation that the polygrapher was an "expert in all phases of both administering polygraph examinations and in the analysis of polygraph chart recordings." How can a suspect, unschooled in the complexities of polygraphy or the credentials needed to administer a valid examination, stipulate to that statement? What factual basis does a suspect possess to form a view of the examiner's expertise? Nothing in the record allays this concern. As the Appellate Division noted, "[i]f this were a consumer contract, we might deem it unconscionable." A.O., supra, 397 N.J.Super. at 23, 935 A.2d 1202.

    Second, the stipulation waives all challenges to the admissibility of the polygraph expert's testimony. Although defendant may cross-examine the expert about his or her qualifications, the manner in which the examination was conducted, the expert's opinion, and the possibility of error, the stipulation nonetheless provides for the automatic right of the expert to testify. In other words, even if defense counsel can undermine basic foundational elements of the expert's testimony and establish at trial that the polygrapher was wholly unqualified, the opinion voiced was not well-grounded, or that the possibility of error was great, the stipulation authorizes the expert to present his or her findings to the jury. That practice offends the core purpose of our evidentiary rules. See N.J.R.E. 403, 702.

    Third, the stipulation limits defendant's ability to attack the polygraph evidence. While he may cross-examine the State's expert, defendant cannot call another witness on the subject. In other words, another expert, no matter how well qualified, cannot offer a contrary opinion about the test results. From accident reconstruction to blood-sample tests, it is common practice for a party to try to rebut the other side's expert testimony with an expert of its own. To be sure, we have strong reservations about allowing dueling experts to testify about polygraph results because of doubts about the polygraph's reliability in general. See Domicz, supra, 188 N.J. at 314, 907 A.2d 395. But in our adversary system of justice, that legal issue is best addressed by lawyers, not suspects.

    Fourth, the stipulation collapses questions about a suspect's voluntary consent with the legal issue of admissibility. In evaluating a waiver of rights, the focus at first is on whether a defendant knowingly and voluntarily entered into the waiver agreement. Next, the focus shifts to whether the results of that waiver may be admitted in evidence. For example, a defendant can knowingly consent to a search, but in doing so does not agree to the admissibility of everything found during the search. The State must still establish that the evidence taken is admissible in accordance with substantive and evidentiary rules. A seized document that would otherwise be inadmissible--whether because the material was irrelevant, prejudicial, privileged, or hearsay--is not cured of its inadmissibility simply because a citizen agreed to its seizure. See, e.g., N.J.R.E. 401, 403, 504, 702. Likewise, defendants may waive their Miranda rights, but they do not stipulate to the admission of all statements that follow. An irrelevant or highly prejudicial comment would still be subject to evidentiary rules that might bar such statements. The same is true for a polygraph exam. A defendant can voluntarily agree to take the test, but its admissibility is a distinctly separate question.

    Once properly advised of his rights, defendant could agree to submit to a polygraph. But the ancillary decisions made beyond that choice bear on trial strategy. Defendants typically rely on counsel to object to otherwise inadmissible evidence, attack a witness's expertise, and decide the most effective way to challenge evidence before a jury. See Rules of Professional Conduct 1.2 (allocating authority between lawyer and client). The stipulation here, though, operated to eliminate counsel's role by relying on a suspect's consent.

    To avoid that course, a number of other states allow polygraph results by stipulation only upon the approval of defendant's counsel. ... Such an approach is consistent with the holding in McDavitt but was not followed here.

    Our "overarching constitutional responsibility [is] to guarantee the proper administration of justice." State v. Williams, 93 N.J. 39, 62, 459 A.2d 641 (1983). "When we perceive ... that more might be done to advance the reliability of our criminal justice system, our supervisory authority over the criminal courts enables us constitutionally to act." State v. Romero, 191 N.J. 59, 74-75, 922 A.2d 693 (2006) (citing N.J. Const. art. VI, § 2, ¶ 3; State v. Delgado, 188 N.J. 48, 62, 902 A.2d 888 (2006)). We do so now to ensure greater fairness at trial and reliability of jury verdicts.

    Relying on our supervisory authority, we bar the introduction of polygraph evidence based on stipulations entered into without counsel. We therefore affirm the Appellate Division's decision to reverse defendant's conviction. The conviction rested on the testimony of a young witness who recanted and then withdrew her recantation. No physical or medical evidence corroborated her testimony. To strengthen its case, the State introduced and highlighted the polygraph evidence discussed above and presented it as "100 percent accurate." We agree with the Appellate Division that "the polygraph evidence may well have made the difference between conviction and acquittal in this case." A.O., supra, 397 N.J.Super. at 33-34, 935 A.2d 1202. As a result, admission of the evidence was clearly capable of producing an unjust result, see Rule 2:10-2, and warrants reversal and a new trial.

    C.

    Judge Weissbard's concurring opinion [in the opinion in this case of New Jersey's intermediate appellate court] encourages us to take one more step: to reverse McDavitt and ban polygraph evidence altogether. He reminds us that the core concern of our evidence rules "is to provide the fact-finder with only reliable and probative evidence." A.O., supra, 397 N.J.Super. at 30, 935 A.2d 1202 (Weissbard, J.A.D., concurring) (citing 1 Wigmore on Evidence § 7a (Tillers rev.1983)); see also Scheffer, supra, 523 U.S. at 309, 118 S.Ct. at 1264, 140 L.Ed.2d at 419. As was true in Domicz, however, we do not have an adequate record to make ultimate findings about the reliability of polygraph evidence at this time. See Domicz, supra, 188 N.J. at 312-13, 907 A.2d 395. Nonetheless, we harbor a number of concerns about McDavitt in light of developments since 1972.

    McDavitt recognized that "lie detector testing has not yet attained scientific acceptance as a reliable and accurate means of ascertaining truth or deception," but concluded that the "art of polygraph testing had developed to a point that its results were probative enough to warrant admissibility upon stipulation." 62 N.J. at 44, 297 A.2d 849. As support for that finding, McDavitt cited to two criminal trial courts that had conducted extensive hearings on the reliability of polygraph tests and found that the results were "now generally accepted by authorities in the field and ... capable of producing highly probative evidence in a court of law when properly used by competent, experienced examiners." Id. at 45, 297 A.2d 849. The Court cited specifically to United States v. Ridling, 350 F.Supp. 90 (E.D.Mich.1972), and United States v. Zeiger, 350 F.Supp. 685 (D.D.C.1972). Zeiger, however, was reversed summarily. See United States v. Zeiger, 475 F.2d 1280 (D.C.Cir.1972). And Ridling was later criticized by its own and one other circuit court for its treatment of polygraph evidence. United States v. Alexander, 526 F.2d, 161, 166 (8th Cir.1975); United States v. Frogge, 476 F.2d 969, 970 (5th Cir.1973).

    Furthermore, as discussed above, after 1972 four states allowed the admission of polygraph evidence for a number of years but reversed course because of questions about reliability among other reasons. See Commonwealth v. Mendes, supra, 547 N.E.2d at 41; Dean, supra, 307 N.W.2d at 653; Grier, supra, 300 S.E.2d at 359-60; Fulton, supra, 541 P.2d at 872; see also Porter, supra, 698 A.2d at 775-76.

    Recent social science studies cast doubt on the reliability of polygraph evidence as well. See Scheffer, supra, 523 U.S. at 309-10, 118 S.Ct. at 1265, 140 L.Ed.2d at 419-20 (reviewing social science evidence); Porter, supra, 698 A.2d at 759-68 (same); NRC Study, supra, at 323-53 (2003) (reviewing 194 separate studies of polygraph testing).

    Those studies explain that polygraphy relies on two assumptions: (1) that deception triggers certain emotional states; and (2) that those emotional states produce specific, measurable physiological changes in the body. Porter, supra, 698 A.2d at 759. As certain empirical evidence has shown, however, there is substantial variation in how individuals respond physiologically when they are lying or telling the truth, and the responses that humans produce in such situations are not specific to either deception or truth-telling. Id. at 760 (citations omitted); NRC Study, supra, at 212-13. The inherent ambiguities in such responses, which arise from individual variations in the subject's cardiovascular, electrodermal and respiratory activity, often make it difficult for a test administrator to determine if the examinee is lying, nervous, tired, or simply trying to game the system. NRC Study, supra, at 4, 13-17, 216, 286-90.

    As the Supreme Court [of the United States] observed, "there is simply no way to know in a particular case whether a polygraph examiner's conclusion is accurate, because certain doubts and uncertainties plague even the best polygraph exams." Scheffer, supra, 523 U.S. at 312, 118 S.Ct. at 1266, 140 L.Ed.2d at 421. Even more troubling, "to the extent that the polygraph errs, studies have repeatedly shown that the polygraph is more likely to find innocent people guilty than vice versa." Id. at 333, 118 S.Ct. at 1276, 140 L.Ed.2d at 433-34 (Stevens, J., dissenting).

    Compounding these questions about reliability is the fact that many lay people tend to view polygraph evidence as bordering on infallible. Id. at 314, 118 S.Ct. at 1267, 140 L.Ed.2d at 422 (majority opinion); A.O., supra, 397 N.J.Super. at 33, 935 A.2d 1202 (citations omitted). Thus, potentially unreliable polygraph evidence may receive undue weight and distract jurors from judging the credibility of witnesses directly.

    Such concerns raise questions about the continuing wisdom of McDavitt. Because we lack a factual record, we cannot fully address those issues today. However, a proper record will have to be developed in the trial court the next time a party seeks to introduce stipulated polygraph evidence, agreed to by both sides. That evidence should be introduced only if the parties can first establish its reliability at an N.J.R.E. 104 hearing.

    END OF OPINION

    Notes by Peter Tillers:

    1. The Supreme Court of New Jersey is unwilling to extend the principle of party autonomy to allow the outcome of a trial to be determined or affected by the equivalent of a coin toss -- even if the parties so stipulate. Hurrah for the Supreme Court of New Jersey!

    2. When a trial court considers the question of the reliability of polygraph testing in the next New Jersey case in which a party seeks to introduce polygraph evidence pursuant to a stipulation, it is unlikely that the trial court will find that polygraph evidence is "reliable" even if the test is administered under ideal conditions.

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